Qatar's Ras Laffan Restart Pulls TTF and JKM Lower as Henry Hub Holds Near $3
European and Asian gas benchmarks ease as Qatari cargoes return through Hormuz; US domestic prices remain untethered from the global move.
ICE Endex TTF front-month fell 1.45% to €72.30 per megawatt-hour, recorded on September 23 (2026-09-23), and JKM dropped 1.27% to $25.72 per MMBtu, recorded on September 24 (2026-09-24), as Qatar continued restoring exports through the Strait of Hormuz following months of disruption tied to the US-Iran conflict. Business Standard reported in late June (2026-06-21) that Qatar was already routing additional tankers through the strait as shipments from Ras Laffan picked up.5
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month barely moved, trading 0.33% higher at $3.05 per MMBtu on September 24 (2026-09-24). The US domestic market has tracked opposite to global benchmarks throughout the crisis, a split rooted in constrained export capacity rather than insulated demand.2
The original disruption was severe. EIA data show the Strait of Hormuz closure, which began February 28 (2026-02-28), removed more than 10 billion cubic feet per day from global LNG supply — approximately 20%, with the bulk coming from Qatar's Ras Laffan export complex. TTF climbed to $14.80 per MMBtu for the week ending April 24 (2026-04-24), 35% above its pre-closure level, the EIA reported. The damage to Qatari infrastructure was direct: QatarEnergy chief executive Saad al-Kaabi said the attack took out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity before Qatar halted output entirely.2,1
American producers faced a different problem. Henry Hub fell 9% from February 28 (2026-02-28) through late May (2026-05-19), according to EIA data, as domestic gas with no easy export outlet backed up in storage. US LNG export terminals ran at 94% of maximum DOE-approved capacity in March, up from 91% utilization in February when exports were estimated at 17.3 billion cubic feet per day. They were already near the ceiling.2
Seasonal maintenance during early June underlined the constraint. Flows to US LNG export terminals fell to 16.9 bcf on June 2 (2026-06-02), the lowest in the tracked period, as terminals cycled through planned outages. NYMEX July natural gas (NGN26) fell 0.38% that session, settling lower for a second straight day. Storage was running above the five-year seasonal average, market data showed.3
The bearish domestic tone persisted into midsummer. NYMEX August natural gas (NGQ26) shed 1.62% on July 8 (2026-07-08), retreating from a one-and-a-half-week high as the market priced in an expected larger-than-normal weekly stockpile build on top of inventories already above seasonal norms.6
Qatari supply crept back into the market gradually. Kpler and LSEG data showed the LNG tanker Disha, chartered by India's Petronet and loaded at Ras Laffan on March 1-2 (2026-03-01 to 2026-03-02), crossing the strait on June 14 (2026-06-14) — an early marker that the passage had reopened for Qatari cargoes. By late June (2026-06-21), more vessels were following the same route.4,5
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum head said in late June (2026-06-24) that markets were on course to return to balance in the third quarter, conditional on the strait remaining open. S&P Global noted in mid-July (2026-07-15) that the conflict had accelerated US LNG investment as European and Asian buyers sought supply chains routing around Hormuz, though new capacity would take years to materialise.8,7
TTF at €72.30/MWh and JKM at $25.72 per MMBtu remain elevated against any pre-crisis baseline, even as both ease. Henry Hub at $3.05 per MMBtu is not pricing the global shortage. But uninterrupted Hormuz transit through the northern winter peak-demand period is what European buyers are tracking — and what could quickly reverse the easing if it falters.2,8