Chinese Monopiles Close In on European Prices as Factory Utilization Collapses
Rystad Energy models show Chinese monopiles can land in Europe for $340,000 less than domestic producers, with European margins compressed to roughly 3% of the selling price.
European offshore wind manufacturers built out capacity just in time to run their factories nearly empty. Analysis published on Tuesday (2026-09-22) by Rystad Energy shows European XXL+ monopile producers are set to run at factory utilization of around 32% in 2026 and 2027, falling to just 19% in 2028, as project timelines slip across the offshore pipeline.4
Cost inflation has compounded the problem. Rystad models show the cost of manufacturing a representative monopile in Europe has risen roughly 38% since March 2020, climbing from $2.50 million per kilotonne to $3.46 million. That squeeze has effectively wiped out supplier margins: in the 1.6-kilotonne reference case, the modeled European supplier margin has fallen from around $0.93 million in the 2024 reference case to approximately $0.20 million as of Tuesday (2026-09-22), equivalent to about 3% of the selling price.4
Chinese manufacturers are undercutting on cost at the same time. Rystad estimates Chinese monopile manufacturing at around $2.03 million per kilotonne, 41% below the European reference. Even after adding ocean freight and EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism charges, a Chinese 1.6-kilotonne monopile can land in Europe at around $6.35 million — a $340,000 discount to the comparable modeled European selling price of around $6.69 million.4
That gap sits on top of a supply chain already running well below viable utilization. European XXL+ capacity is forecast by Rystad to climb from roughly 1.2 million tonnes in 2024 to 2.7 million tonnes by 2027. With projects slipping, that expansion intensifies rather than resolves the utilization problem. Loading improves later in the decade, nearing 50% in 2031 under the current project pipeline, but the intervening years are lean.4
The CBAM factor is not yet settled. The mechanism is designed to equalize carbon costs between European producers paying EUA prices and importers whose domestic carbon pricing is lower. EUA Dec-rolling settled at €86.38 per tonne of CO2 on Tuesday (2026-09-22). How far CBAM actually closes the cost gap depends on how embedded carbon in Chinese steel-intensive products is assessed and what credit, if any, Chinese producers receive for domestic carbon payments. Rystad's $6.35 million landed cost figure is conditional on both supplier margin and CBAM treatment, leaving a range of outcomes around that number.4
European trade policy is also tightening around steel, the core input for monopiles. From July 2026, the EU cut tariff-free steel quotas by 47%, from roughly 33 million tonnes to 18.3 million, and doubled out-of-quota duties from 25% to 50% through 2031. European Commission estimates put global steel overcapacity at potentially 721 million tonnes by 2027, nearly five times total EU steel consumption, which explains the political momentum behind those measures.3
Chinese turbine makers are pressing into European markets through other routes regardless. Wood Mackenzie analyst Endri Lico estimates Chinese OEMs captured around 18% of the global offshore wind market outside China in 2025, triple their 2024 share. Ming Yang Smart Energy, which reported annual revenue of approximately €4.5 billion in 2025, joined Norway's offshore wind industry cluster after the UK government blocked its plans to build a £1.5 billion turbine factory at the port of Ardersier in Scotland. Norway has a 30 GW offshore wind target by 2040, with floating wind central to that plan.2,1
But European developers are not uniformly opening their doors. German wind developer Luxcara cancelled a turbine agreement with Ming Yang for its 300 MW Waterkant offshore project, switching to Siemens Gamesa turbines. That decision, alongside the UK factory block, shows security and political concerns acting as a brake on Chinese penetration even where the economics appear to favor it.2
The commercial test for European monopile producers comes during the 2027-2028 trough, when Rystad models utilization at its worst. Factories running at 19% cannot easily justify the price premium European suppliers need to keep margins above 3%. The gap between Chinese landed cost and European selling price is narrow on Tuesday (2026-09-22), but it widens whenever a developer faces delayed projects, tightening budgets, and a competitive Chinese bid with ocean freight and CBAM already factored in.4