Romanian Think Tank Argues Demand Response Can Replace Coal Capacity
With 630 MW of coal extensions granted last month and Cernavoda still offline, a think tank says Romania's new auction mechanism makes permanent closures viable.
A think tank argued on Tuesday (2026-09-22) that Romania can replace coal capacity through demand response, entering a debate the government has answered so far with plant extensions rather than flexible load management. Romania's day-ahead power price on Tuesday (2026-09-22) reached €207.51/MWh, with the country still absorbing the absence of Cernavoda's 1.35 GW nuclear facility.5,3
The research lands three weeks after Romania's most concrete policy response to its supply crunch. On August 31 (2026-08-31), the state secretary for energy confirmed the postponement of 630 MW of coal capacity scheduled for closure at the end of that month, Montel reported. Two Craiova units received extensions to June 2027; Turceni unit 5 was pushed to the first quarter of 2028. The stated rationale was uncertain nuclear availability.4
Demand response had already gained a formal foothold before those coal delays were announced. On August 26 (2026-08-26), regulators approved rules allowing TSO Transelectrica to procure electricity demand reductions through daily auctions. Cernavoda contributes roughly 20% of national power generation, Montel reported, and its shutdown was cited as the immediate driver of the new rules.3
The auction mechanism was approved only five days before the coal extensions were confirmed. Romania entered September with both tools in place: the new daily auction process alongside the extended coal plants. The government's decision to retain that capacity suggests it regards demand response as supplementary to firm generation, not a substitute. That is the calculation the think tank's report appears to challenge.3,4,5
The underlying cause of the crunch was Danube drought. Low river levels forced the shutdown of both 680 MW reactors at Cernavoda, stripping approximately 20% of Romania's power output at once, according to OilPrice.com. Romania restarted the 300 MW Rovinari Group 4 coal unit during the week of August 17 (2026-08-17) as a partial offset.2
The system had been fragile for months before that. A faulty transformer shut down Cernavoda's 650 MW Unit 2 on Monday, May 18 (2026-05-18), compounding regular maintenance on the 650 MW Unit 1 that began May 10 and was scheduled to run until July 7, according to Entso-E data. By late May, Romania was without 1.3 GW of stable generation. Analysts described the system as pushed "to its limits," with significant morning and evening price spikes, Montel reported on May 21 (2026-05-21).1
But that vulnerability persists. Romania's day-ahead price on Tuesday (2026-09-22) reached €207.51/MWh, reflecting a grid where Cernavoda's lost output cannot yet be absorbed by imports or flexibility alone. How much demand response Transelectrica can clear at daily auctions — and at what cost to industrial consumers — has not been established at the volumes the grid requires.3,5
The coal extensions reset the decision timeline. Craiova's two units run until June 2027, nine months from now, and Turceni 5 until Q1 2028. The scheme's practical ceiling depends on industrial participation depth not yet publicly established, given that the auction rules themselves date only to late August. The think tank's thesis rests on that track record materialising before Romania faces the same coal closure question again.4,2,5
Cernavoda's restart timeline is a more immediate variable. Low Danube water levels drove the shutdown of both reactors in August, and no return date appears in the available reporting. Should water levels remain low through winter, Romania's dependence on the 630 MW of coal it just extended will face an earlier test than the think tank's analysis accounts for.2,4