EIA Raises 2027 U.S. Crude Forecast to 14.3 Million Barrels Per Day for Third Month Running
The EIA's September outlook raised its 2027 target for the third consecutive month, to a level U.S. production has never reached annually or monthly.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration lifted its 2027 crude oil production forecast to 14.3 million barrels per day in its September 10 (2026-09-10) Short-Term Energy Outlook, up from 14.2 million in August's outlook and 14.0 million in July's. No calendar year and no single month in the recorded history of U.S. crude production has ever averaged that volume, according to EIA data stretching back to 1859.7
ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $99.32 per barrel and NYMEX WTI front-month at $90.73 as of September 22 (2026-09-22). Prices at those levels continue to incentivize drilling across the Permian Basin, but producers there acknowledge the incremental gains ahead are smaller than the EIA's headline numbers suggest. Independent operators in the basin are targeting roughly 250,000 barrels per day of additional capacity following the Iran-related price surge, a volume E&E News described as too limited to move oil prices or relieve consumers at the pump.2
For 2026, the EIA still forecasts a full-year average of 13.8 million b/d, which would surpass 2025's annual record of 13.7 million b/d. The first half of 2026 averaged 13.7 million b/d, according to EIA data, meaning the second half carries the increment required to close the gap.6
The 2025 annual record was formally confirmed on August 31 (2026-08-31) when the EIA updated its annual field production dataset. Output averaged 13.662 million b/d in 2025. Before that, only 2024 had exceeded 13 million b/d on a full-year basis, at 13.235 million b/d, a gap of roughly 430,000 b/d between the two years.1
Monthly data shows how quickly the post-Iran supply response fed into volume. U.S. production climbed to 13.934 million b/d in April 2026, the highest monthly total ever recorded and 216,000 b/d above March's 13.718 million b/d, according to EIA monthly data released on June 30 (2026-06-30). The prior monthly peaks were September 2025 at 13.828 million b/d and August 2025 at 13.810 million b/d.3,1
The Permian Basin underpins the expansion. The West Texas and New Mexico formation produced approximately 6.6 million b/d in 2025 — just under half of total U.S. crude output, according to Forbes data citing EIA figures. Any sustained softening in Permian rig activity maps directly onto a shortfall against EIA's forward trajectory.5
The United States extended its run as the world's largest crude producer through 2025, a streak the EIA says began in 2018 when domestic output overtook Russia. Russia held second place at roughly 9.9 million b/d in 2025 despite sanctions, voluntary cuts, and the war in Ukraine. U.S. output ran approximately 40% above both Russia and Saudi Arabia.4,5
Three consecutive upward revisions to the 2027 forecast reflect EIA's assumption that Permian development economics hold at prices near current levels. But the arithmetic is demanding. The gap between April 2026's monthly record of 13.934 million b/d and the 14.3 million b/d annual average EIA is projecting for 2027 is roughly 360,000 b/d, and hitting it requires sustaining elevated output through quarters when prices may not stay close to $100. The broader directional signal across market indicators runs 82% bearish, suggesting traders are pricing supply adequacy rather than scarcity.6,7
One signal running against that consensus: Urals crude spot is showing an isolated bullish reading, pointing to residual disruption risk in Russian supply that could tighten the global balance if U.S. production growth disappoints. Whether April's monthly record was a durable shift or a one-quarter reaction to the Hormuz closure will be visible in EIA's fourth-quarter production releases — the first real test of whether 14 million barrels is achievable or a forecast that outruns its own assumptions.7