Qatar LNG Tankers Return to Hormuz as TTF Falls 7.87%
LNG carriers resuming Strait of Hormuz transits pushed ICE Endex TTF front-month down sharply, testing analysts' conviction that Qatar was right to spurn pipeline bypass options.
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas fell 7.87% to €73.27/MWh on Monday (2026-09-21), as LNG tanker traffic began returning to the Strait of Hormuz. At least two carriers completed transits during the week of Monday (2026-09-14), with two others conducting ship-to-ship transfers offshore Oman, tanker-tracking and satellite data reported by OilPrice.com showed. Platts JKM LNG front-month fell 5.53% to $25.99/MMBtu, both declines coinciding with the transit reports.7
The resumption comes seven months after the US-Israel war with Iran disrupted flows through a strait that handles roughly 20% of global LNG supply, according to Montel. Exports ground to a near halt after hostilities began on February 28 (2026-02-28), costing QatarEnergy an estimated $24 billion in lost sales as exports collapsed by as much as 96%, Reuters calculations showed.3,6
Analysts have supported Qatar's refusal to pursue pipeline infrastructure routing LNG around Hormuz. The argument draws partly on what QatarEnergy did during the closure. The company acquired 33 spot LNG cargoes from US suppliers, valued at roughly $1 billion, to maintain deliveries to long-term customers in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, India and Bangladesh, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Twenty-eight of those cargoes had reached their destinations by late July (2026-07-30); the remainder were en route.5
Around 80% of Qatar's LNG exports typically go to Asia under long-term contracts. QatarEnergy invoked force majeure during the closure but simultaneously spent around $1 billion to limit the impact on buyers that have depended on Qatari supply for decades, market participants told Reuters. The company kept counterparties whole where it could, buying flexibility in the spot market rather than committing capital to fixed overland routes.5
Pipeline bypass would have required years of construction and capital expenditure of a different order. But the emergency US purchases bridged part of the gap, substantial in absolute cost yet manageable against the alternative. Analysts told Montel that a ceasefire and Iran's Hormuz reopening pledge offered optimism, though much depended on Qatari production returning at full volume and the durability of any peace agreement.2
Europe's exposure during the disruption illustrated the stakes. An average of analyst forecasts published on Thursday (2026-05-21) showed ICE Endex TTF front-month could approach EUR 100/MWh if the Qatari shut-in extended three months, Montel reported. Monday's (2026-09-21) reading of €73.27/MWh suggests the recovery so far has kept that scenario at bay.1
The return of flows has not been linear. A QatarEnergy tanker appeared to have been struck by a projectile while leaving Hormuz on Tuesday (2026-07-07), analysts told Montel, raising the prospect of further incidents and a delayed flow recovery.4
ICE Brent crude front-month held at $100.58/bbl as of Tuesday (2026-09-22), a sharp contrast to the double-digit percentage falls in gas benchmarks, suggesting crude markets continue to price in Gulf geopolitical risk even as LNG flows inch back. Qatar's expansion target, raising LNG production capacity from 77 million tonnes per year to 142 million tonnes annually by end of decade, means the tanker fleet navigating the strait will grow substantially.5
Security conditions along the Strait of Hormuz remain the standing test of whether Qatar's approach proves durable. Transit numbers are rising. Yet the July (2026-07-07) tanker strike showed the strait can turn hostile without warning, and analysts have cautioned that lingering uncertainty will continue to shadow European gas markets through the third quarter as storage targets still require further imports, Montel reported.4,3,7