Saudi Arabia Revives Hormuz Crude Flows But Production Stays at 35-Year Low
JPMorgan data show Saudi Hormuz flows averaged 2.9 million bpd over the six days to September 18, even as August output hit its lowest since 1990.
Saudi crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged roughly 2.9 million barrels per day over the six days ending September 18, according to JPMorgan analysts — up sharply from approximately 700,000 bpd in August, when attacks and pipeline damage had largely blocked the route.7
That jump partly explains why ICE Brent crude front-month eased back toward $100, trading at $100.09 as of September 21, after having reached $108 when Saudi Aramco suspended Yanbu loadings and halted its East-West pipeline. Hopes of diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran also weighed on prices.6,7
But the recovery in throughput sits alongside a stark production drop. OPEC data released on Friday (2026-09-11) showed Saudi crude output fell to 6.24 million barrels per day in August — down roughly 1.9 million bpd from 8.1 million bpd in July and the lowest recorded level since 1990. The kingdom had briefly bounced from 7.1 million bpd in June to 8.1 million bpd in July before the August collapse erased that gain.5,4
Saudi Arabia told OPEC it supplied 7.1 million bpd to the market in August, well above its reported production figure. Ship trackers disagree sharply on what actually left Saudi ports: Vortexa estimated August loadings at 3.2 million bpd, while Kpler put them at 1.5 million bpd. The gap between official supply claims and vessel-tracking data makes the true export picture hard to read.5
The attack on Aramco's 400,000 bpd Jizan refinery on Monday (2026-09-07) added to the strain on Red Sea infrastructure. The Financial Times reported the strike came as Saudi Arabia was already redirecting crude westward to avoid Hormuz closure.3
That westward diversion has proved expensive. Tanker rates have reached close to $1 million per day, making Red Sea routes punishing for buyers and limiting how quickly Saudi Arabia can rebuild delivery volumes even with Hormuz partially reopened.6
Shipowners including Sinokor Group have run shuttle tanker operations between Yanbu and Ain Sukhna at the northern end of the Red Sea, allowing customers to collect barrels at Sidi Kerir instead. Ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show at least four tankers have completed the Yanbu-to-Ain Sukhna voyage twice or more, moving a combined 16.3 million barrels. Kpler data show northern Red Sea Saudi crude flows rose by about a third after Houthi forces announced a blockade on July 20 (2026-07-20), reaching approximately 1.1 million bpd.2
The numbers still leave a sizable shortfall. Saudi Aramco's East-West pipeline was moving up to 7 million bpd before it was halted. The kingdom's alternative export infrastructure can handle around 5 million bpd, and Aramco has outlined plans to route more than 5 million bpd through non-Hormuz corridors. With Hormuz averaging 2.9 million bpd through September 18 and the northern Red Sea adding roughly 1.1 million bpd, combined export capacity remains well below pre-crisis levels. Industry estimates put each week of Hormuz disruption at close to 100 million barrels removed from global supply.1,2,7
Analysts tie Saudi Arabia's production decline to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, citing disruption to Persian Gulf shipping corridors. Dubai crude — the benchmark for Middle Eastern barrels into Asia — traded at $116.35 a barrel as of September 21, more than $16 above ICE Brent front-month at that date, signalling that the grades Saudi Arabia primarily ships to Asian refiners are trading at a premium that the partial Brent recovery does not capture.4,5
Tanker rates near $1 million per day remain the clearest constraint on any further export recovery even if the Strait stays open. Until they ease, Aramco's route-switching economics limit how much of the Hormuz rebound translates into barrels that actually reach buyers.6