Wood Mackenzie Sees Asian LNG Demand Near Doubling by 2050 as Hormuz Crisis Drives Second Straight Annual Fall
The Hormuz closure has stripped roughly 80 mtpa from global supply, forcing near-term Asian LNG demand lower while long-run projections point to a near-doubling by 2050.
Asian LNG demand is on course to fall for a second consecutive year. Analysts estimate a drop of 3 to 10 percent in 2026, as the US-Israeli war on Iran curtails Gulf supplies and prices reach multi-year highs that are cutting consumption, The Hindu BusinessLine reported on Wednesday, September 16 (2026-09-16).6
JKM spot LNG traded at $27.51/MMBtu on Monday (2026-09-21), a price high enough to push South Asian buyers toward coal and domestic gas rather than spot cargoes. The market is pricing the supply shock. Buyers switching to coal now may not return to LNG automatically once Gulf flows resume.6
The Hormuz closure removed around 80 million tonnes per annum from world LNG markets, equal to roughly 20 percent of global supply, according to Wood Mackenzie scenario modelling reported by Asian Power on Thursday, September 11 (2026-09-11). Qatar, which holds around 10 percent of global gas reserves, sits at the centre of that exposure.5,1,7
Global LNG trade had reached 422 million metric tons in 2025. Shell, the world's largest LNG trader, had expected volumes to rise in 2026. The Hormuz disruption instead kept trade roughly flat for the year, Reuters reported on June 30 (2026-06-30).2
But the long-run picture diverges sharply from the near-term. Wood Mackenzie projects Asian LNG demand rising from roughly 270 mtpa in 2024 to around 510 mtpa by 2050, nearly doubling consumption as Southeast and South Asian economies expand and domestic gas output in emerging markets declines.7
Shell's annual LNG outlook, published on June 30 (2026-06-30), was similarly bullish on the end-state. The company projects global LNG demand reaching nearly 700 million tons a year by 2050, a 65 percent increase from 2025 levels, driven by Asia's shift away from coal and surging data centre power demand. Shell estimates Asia-Pacific alone will need around 300 million tons per year by 2050, with domestic production in emerging Asian markets unable to meet the gap.2,3
India is already contracting for that future. The country signed 8.4 mtpa of long-term LNG supply contracts in 2025, more than any other buyer that year, and was named the most active buyer in GIIGNL's 2026 annual report. Long-term contracting insulates against spot price spikes but concentrates exposure on specific supply routes, including Gulf routes now disrupted.4
New supply capacity is being built outside the Persian Gulf. Wood Mackenzie's modelling counts over 150 mtpa of LNG capacity under construction, mainly in the United States, with a further 30 mtpa expected to reach final investment decision by the end of the decade. That pipeline should eventually offset much of the 80 mtpa shortfall, but construction timelines mean Asia absorbs the full loss for several years before any relief arrives.1
For equity investors with Qatar exposure, the demand outlook is inseparable from Middle East security. Discovery Alert reported on Wednesday, September 16 (2026-09-16), that risk-adjusted returns on Qatar-exposed equity are partly a function of Middle East geopolitics, not purely gas fundamentals. Any Qatar equity position is partly a bet on Strait access.7
Wood Mackenzie said Asia-Pacific needs greater flexibility in LNG sourcing as a multi-year supply loss looms from the Gulf conflict. Demand lost to coal or domestic gas infrastructure during this disruption may not reverse cleanly when Hormuz flows recover — buyers who restructure their supply mix now will shape what the 510 mtpa figure actually looks like in 2050.5,7