China Spot LNG Imports Near 180% Year-to-Date Gain Before August Retreat
A surge in short-term Chinese purchases pushed spot import volumes close to tripling year-to-date, while JKM above $27/MMBtu triggered an 18% demand pullback in August.
China's spot liquefied natural gas imports have climbed close to 180% year-to-date, Sohu reported, as state-owned buyers and independents stepped up short-term purchases through the northern hemisphere summer.
Wood Mackenzie has identified China as the world's largest LNG market, having overtaken Japan, and the country's scale in short-term procurement now shapes JKM pricing more directly than any other single buyer. A swing in Chinese spot demand moves prices in ways the long-contract market alone does not.2
But the surge has hit a price ceiling. Kpler data cited by Bloomberg projected China's total LNG imports would fall 18% year-on-year in August to around 5.2 million tons, snapping three months of higher year-on-year purchases in a row.7
JKM, the Asian spot LNG benchmark, stood at $27.51/MMBtu on Monday (2026-09-21). Buyers who drove the near-180% spot gain through May, June and July 2026 accumulated cargoes as prices permitted, tightening available supply and pushing JKM higher. Once the price crossed into territory buyers could not absorb, August demand contracted sharply.7
The supply side grew to meet earlier demand, though not fast enough to prevent the price move. Global LNG trade reached a record 56.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, a 5.4% annual gain, according to EIA data citing the International Group of LNG Importers. US exports drove most of that expansion, rising 26% to 15.1 Bcf/d last year and representing 26% of global supply, up from 21% in 2024.5
The United States, Qatar and Australia combined held 63% of global LNG exports in 2025, up from 60% the year before, the EIA noted. Qatar was the second-largest contributor, adding 3% to reach 10.6 Bcf/d.5
US feedgas supply is still growing. EIA's May 2026 outlook projected Lower 48 marketed natural gas output 3% higher this year than in 2025, driven partly by Permian volumes forecast at 29.2 Bcf/d, 6% above last year. The Haynesville region, which routes production more directly to export terminals, was projected to grow 6% in 2026.1
Japan, until recently the world's top LNG importer, recorded September 2025 imports of 5.32 million tons, down 1.6% year-on-year, per Ministry of Finance provisional data. Price-sensitive demand elsewhere in Asia has not compensated for any pullback in Chinese buying.3
Bangladesh is trying to reduce procurement risk by broadening its spot supplier base. State energy officials told The Financial Express they had invited applications to expand the list of approved spot sellers, after only a handful of the 27 currently listed suppliers regularly participated in tenders. Regasified LNG already covers around 711 million cubic feet per day of Bangladesh's total gas supply of roughly 2,336 mmcfd.6
Shell's LNG Outlook 2026 projects global demand reaching close to 700 million tons per year by 2050, a 65% increase from 2025 volumes, as countries continue to prioritise energy security alongside the transition.4
Whether Chinese state buyers re-enter the spot market in autumn 2026 hinges on where JKM settles in coming weeks. US cargoes that lost a Chinese home in August need placement; other Asian buyers, with Japan down 1.6% on its most recently reported year and Bangladesh still expanding its approved supplier list, have not shown sufficient appetite to absorb the gap.7,5,3,6