Hormuz Throughput Has Doubled From Its September Low, But Brent Is Still Above $100
Strait flows have climbed from near-collapse to around 10 million barrels per day, and futures have been slow to re-price the shift.
Strait of Hormuz throughput had recovered to around 10 to 11 million barrels per day on a rolling basis, roughly half of pre-war capacity, according to estimates referenced during the week of September 7 (2026-09-07), though one report cautioned that exact daily volumes are difficult to verify. Brent crude front-month was trading at $101.95 a barrel as of Monday (2026-09-21) morning, up 0.63% on the session. WTI front-month sat at $94.22.4,5
The recovery is larger than the prevailing price level implies. Rystad Energy, as cited by Reuters during the week of September 7 (2026-09-07), put the seven-day moving average at just 4 to 5 million barrels per day. Before that, when fighting between U.S. and Iranian forces resumed, daily flows fell below 2 million barrels. A strait running at 10 to 11 million barrels per day is a materially different supply situation than the near-closure the rally was built on.5
The throughput trajectory is worth stating plainly. Rystad estimated early August outflows at 6 to 8 million barrels per day, rising to 8 to 9 million in late August before renewed hostilities collapsed that figure below 2 million barrels. Recovery to current levels doubles September's floor reading in a few weeks.5
The IEA's July numbers add to the case against the current price. The agency's monthly Oil Market Report put shuttered Middle Eastern production at 8.3 million barrels per day as of July. Global oil inventories drew by 69 million barrels that month at an average daily rate of 2.7 million barrels. Demand absorbed constrained supply, but storage buffers are now leaner than at any point since the disruption began.5
Those lean inventories look different if Hormuz keeps recovering. With 8.3 million barrels per day of offline Middle Eastern production still waiting to flow, a corridor now running at 10 to 11 million barrels per day creates conditions for a sharp inventory rebuild. The same tightness that has sustained Brent above $100 could unwind quickly once shut-in volumes start returning.5
But OPEC's October production quotas are an overlooked layer of supply overhang. Russia's October quota stands at 9.949 million barrels per day and Saudi Arabia's at 10.478 million, according to OPEC's own production table. Those two producers alone account for more than 20 million barrels per day of quota capacity — leaving limited scope to absorb a Hormuz-led Gulf export surge without the global balance tipping toward surplus.3
Ship-count data from early September illustrated how fast conditions can change in both directions. On Wednesday (2026-09-02), just six commodity vessels transited Hormuz — down from 11 the day before, and below the recent 10-day average of around 13, according to reports. Yet on Monday (2026-08-31), roughly 17 million barrels had moved through the waterway in a single day. Single-day snapshots are almost meaningless; the seven-day rolling average is the relevant signal.2
June provided the nearest template for how markets reprice when throughput recovers. When Hormuz traffic appeared to normalize at the end of that month, ING analysts estimated 6 to 7 million barrels per day were transiting the strait, well below the waterway's normal 20 million barrel daily rate. Brent still fell roughly 1% to $75.93 per barrel on Wednesday (2026-06-24), with WTI dropping 1.3% to $72.31 in European trading that same session. That throughput level was lower than what is being reported now. The ceasefire eventually broke and prices recovered — but the directional move off partial normalization was fast.1
Rystad's next throughput estimate is the specific input that would confirm or refute the recovery narrative. An IEA update showing August shut-in Middle Eastern production has fallen below the July figure of 8.3 million barrels per day would compound the pressure on the bullish case. If the rolling average holds near 10 to 11 million barrels through the remainder of September, the physical supply story behind triple-digit Brent grows increasingly difficult to sustain.5