Goldman Warns TTF and JKM Could Jump 30 Percent by Year-End if Hormuz LNG Stays Blocked
Goldman Sachs sees TTF hitting 105 euros and JKM reaching $35 per MMBtu by year-end if Hormuz LNG flows stay blocked through winter.
Goldman Sachs on Sunday (2026-09-20) put a 105-euros-per-megawatt-hour target on ICE Endex TTF front-month and $35 per MMBtu on JKM spot by year-end, conditional on Persian Gulf LNG exports remaining constrained through the winter heating season under average weather conditions. The bank's base case, which assumes a gradual recovery in Hormuz flows, sits at 70 euros and around $25 per MMBtu.6
Both markets were already trading above Goldman's base case on Monday (2026-09-21). ICE Endex TTF front-month stood at €79.54 per MWh. JKM spot was at $27.51 per MMBtu. European gas storage, meanwhile, sat at roughly 62% of capacity according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data — a five-year low. The stress scenario, then, requires roughly another 32% upside from Monday's (2026-09-21) TTF level.4,5,6
The Hormuz disruption has been running long enough that it is now a structural feature of global LNG pricing rather than a sentiment spike. Goldman previously estimated a disruption pause reduced near-term global LNG supply by about 19%. LNG supplies roughly 25% of Europe's total gas, according to Stifel analyst Chris Wheaton, who noted in a research note that with around 20% of global LNG production sitting behind the Strait, a prolonged block risks a supply squeeze comparable to the 2022 crisis that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine.1
European buyers were slow to respond. Reporting from Daily Sabah on August 18 (2026-08-18) noted that buyers had initially adopted a wait-and-see approach as Qatari LNG shipment disruptions intensified competition for spot cargoes, with Europe and Asia bidding against the same limited supply pool.3
Asia's demand has not softened to help. Goldman's preliminary May data showed Asian LNG imports running approximately 4 million tonnes per annum above the bank's 225 mtpa forecast, with China's four-week average imports climbing to 48 mtpa from 36 mtpa in March, and South Korea imports above April levels at 42 mtpa. Storage rebuilding in both markets was driving the incremental pull.2
Goldman said in its Sunday (2026-09-20) note that weak Asian demand had earlier bought Europe time to restock more cheaply. That window is closing. Asian imports are now tracking above forecast as winter preparations begin, and the competition for spot LNG cargoes runs directly against European storage needs.2,6
Goldman expects demand destruction in its upside scenario to fall primarily on industrial gas consumers, which use gas in large volumes. European industry contracted sharply during the 2022-23 price shock; a repeat this winter would compound the drag from energy costs on manufacturing output across the continent.6
TTF held above the €80 mark as recently as Wednesday (2026-09-16), near levels last seen during the 2022 crisis, according to OilPrice.com reporting that cited low storage as the driver. But Monday's (2026-09-21) €79.54 per MWh still leaves a wide gap to Goldman's €105 stress target, suggesting the market is not yet fully pricing the scenario where Hormuz disruption persists into January and February.5
The divergence in Goldman's two scenarios hinges almost entirely on LNG transit normalisation through the Strait. Without a named diplomatic development or confirmed resumption of Qatari cargo flows at pre-crisis rates, the trajectory of Chinese and South Korean import demand over the next eight weeks will likely determine which end of Goldman's range the market gravitates toward as buyers enter peak seasonal hedging.2,6