QatarEnergy Sets Two-Month Timetable for LNG Restart but 17% of Capacity Stays Offline for Years
Qatar's energy minister says normal LNG output is weeks away once Hormuz reopens, but two struck liquefaction trains will stay out of service for up to five years.
QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said on Monday (2026-09-21) that Qatar could return LNG capabilities to normal levels within a couple of weeks of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, provided the 17% of export capacity destroyed by Iranian missiles last March is excluded from the calculation.7
Al-Kaabi's formulation is precise. The recovery roadmap laid out by QatarEnergy targets approximately 50% of pre-conflict production capacity within one month of safe passage being confirmed, rising to around 80% within two months. That 80% figure applies only to undamaged facilities; the two struck liquefaction trains sit in a separate repair queue entirely.6
Those two trains are Train 4, a joint venture between QatarEnergy (66%) and ExxonMobil (34%), and Train 6, a joint venture between QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%). Together they account for roughly 17% of Qatar's total export capacity at Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG-producing facility, which carries annual production capacity of 77 million metric tons. Al-Kaabi told Reuters the damage would take three to five years to repair.7,3
For global LNG buyers, the distinction matters. The Strait closure had trapped around 20% of global LNG supply in the Gulf before shipments began to partially resume. ICE Endex TTF front-month was trading at €79.54/MWh and JKM was at $27.51/MMBtu early Monday (2026-09-21), reflecting how much supply disruption remains priced across European and Asian benchmarks.3
An explosion at Ras Laffan on Sunday (2026-06-21) — a technical accident at the Barzan local gas unit that killed 13 and injured 66 as workers attempted to restart halted operations — underscored how physically complex any rapid ramp-up will be. QatarEnergy said at the time that the blast would not affect LNG exports, but production had already been halted since early March following the initial Iranian missile strikes.4,3
By late June (week of 2026-06-22), up to eight empty LNG carriers had arrived at Ras Laffan and were positioned to load, Bloomberg reported. QatarEnergy had also told customers it could restore about 50% of production within a month of safe navigation resuming, with 80% achievable within two months, according to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg.5,2
The financial damage is substantial. QatarEnergy has said the damage to Ras Laffan will cost approximately $20 billion per year in lost revenue, with repair costs estimated at $20 to $25 billion in total. ExxonMobil, as a joint-venture partner with detailed access to both trains, has separately indicated a three-to-five-year repair timeline — a data point analysts have treated as credible given ExxonMobil's direct technical involvement, according to analyst Sergey Kaufman.2,1
European buyers face a more prolonged adjustment than the two-month headline implies. Gas prices in Europe had already risen more than 50% since the start of the Persian Gulf conflict, and analysts estimated a further 20-30% rise in European gas prices over the subsequent six months as European and Asian buyers compete for available LNG cargoes, according to forecasts published in late May (2026-05-27).1
Even if the Strait reopens cleanly and undamaged Qatari capacity returns at the rate al-Kaabi described, the 17% gap will persist well into the decade. ICE Endex TTF front-month and JKM face bearish pressure on a longer horizon once undamaged trains are running at full tilt, but that scenario assumes no further disruption to the Strait or to Ras Laffan itself.6,1
The June explosion during a restart attempt is a cautionary marker. Qatar's energy ministry has a roadmap and a timeline; the gap between the two-week recovery promise and the five-year repair horizon is what shapes how much tightness persists in Atlantic and Pacific LNG markets once the immediate shipping risk fades.6,34