Climate Action Tracker Says Turkey Prioritises Fossil Fuels Despite COP31 Host Role
An independent scientific group found Turkey's power-sector spending contradicts its clean-energy positioning, complicating European expectations ahead of the summit.
Turkey continues to prioritise fossil fuels in its power sector despite cheaper renewable alternatives being available, independent scientific group Climate Action Tracker said on Thursday (2026-09-17), a finding that places the COP31 host's energy policy under direct scrutiny weeks before the summit opens.6
The assessment carries particular weight given Ankara's positioning this year. Turkey is hosting the United Nations climate conference and has actively presented itself as a bridge between European and Asian energy markets. CAT's conclusion is that the government's power-sector spending choices do not match that framing.6
Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced in June plans to develop an Azerbaijan-Europe electricity corridor and said the country intended to modernise its transmission and distribution grid with roughly $30 billion in investment over the next decade to accommodate more renewable and nuclear capacity.4 The government has also said it wants to push the share of electricity in final energy demand from 20% to 35% by 2035.4 Those are substantial targets. But stated ambitions and actual capital allocation can diverge, and CAT's study suggests the gap is real.6
Wind capacity offers one measure of the distance to travel. Ben Backwell, chief executive of the Global Wind Energy Council, told Anadolu Agency that annual wind installations in Turkey could reach around 2.5 gigawatts this year, against a long-term government ambition of 7 gigawatts per year.2 Getting from current installation rates to that long-term figure requires a material acceleration that the fossil-fuel investment prioritisation identified by CAT would make harder to sustain.2,6
On gas, the picture is similarly mixed. State pipeline operator Botas signed a 15-year deal to purchase around 33 billion cubic metres per year from Azerbaijan, with roughly 2.25 bcm per year flowing from 2029 via the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline.3 An analyst told Montel the deal is unlikely to lift gas flows to Europe significantly because existing pipeline infrastructure is already near capacity.3 Turkey has framed the arrangement as part of its ambition to become a regional gas hub, but physical constraints limit how far that ambition can reach.3
Saudi Arabia has moved to deepen its renewable energy partnership with Turkey, including prior solar investment, and both countries announced cooperation plans on 30 August (2026-08-30).5 That external interest could provide financing and equipment for a faster renewable build. Whether it shifts the domestic investment mix away from fossil fuels is a separate question.5
Turkey's diplomatic conduct during COP31 preparations has added a further layer of tension. Turkey blocked Cyprus from preparatory briefings and refused bilateral meeting requests from Nicosia submitted on behalf of the European Union, according to five diplomats and officials cited by POLITICO in May (2026-05-28).1 Cyprus held the rotating EU Council presidency at the time. The episode has complicated Turkey's relationships with European counterparts whose cooperation it needs on energy corridor projects.1
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas was trading at €76.27/MWh on Friday (2026-09-18), broadly steady. European gas prices do not respond directly to Turkish domestic policy, but they are sensitive to how quickly Turkey can develop transit capacity and alternative supply routes from Azerbaijan. If pipeline constraints limit Azerbaijani gas volumes flowing westward, as the Montel analyst suggested, European buyers cannot rely on that route to diversify supply.3
For energy executives and portfolio managers watching COP31, the CAT finding introduces a credibility question. Climate commitments made by the host country during the summit will be assessed against a baseline that independent analysts have already characterised as fossil-fuel-weighted. Turkey has genuine renewable potential — GWEC's Backwell described it as a strategic green energy corridor — but the gap between potential and current allocation is what negotiators and investors will be pricing.2,6 The concrete test is whether Turkey's COP31 pledges include binding domestic power-sector targets, or whether they focus on the transit and corridor roles that carry less direct political cost at home.6