US Diesel Stocks Hit 15-Month Low as China Steps Up Jet Fuel Exports to Supply-Starved Markets
A 2.4% weekly draw pushed US diesel inventories to their weakest level in 15 months while China exports aviation fuel to markets cut off by the Hormuz closure.
US diesel inventories dropped 2.4% in the week ending September 12 (2026-09-12), their lowest reading in 15 months, the publication noted. Stocks were depleted well before that draw. They already sat 12% below their five-year average after months of record-pace US exports, EIA data showed.5,6
The depletion follows directly from US barrels filling a global gap. In the week of July 27 (2026-07-27), American diesel exports hit 1.9 million barrels per day, the EIA confirmed, breaking a previous record set in spring. Bloomberg had tracked exports running at 1.5 million barrels per day for five consecutive weeks before that surge.5
The Strait of Hormuz closure on February 28 (2026-02-28) triggered those flows. Europe and Asia, which had previously imported heavily from the Middle East, suddenly needed alternative refined product supply, oilprice.com reported. US production filled the breach. Jet fuel output climbed to record highs by June 2026, the EIA said on June 8 (2026-06-08), as producers responded to domestic prices that had roughly doubled since March.2,5
China moved similarly to capture market share in aviation fuel. On Tuesday, May 19 (2026-05-19), the Australian government confirmed it had secured three cargoes of jet fuel totaling more than 600,000 barrels from China, with deliveries expected from early June. Those cargoes came on top of 600,000 barrels — roughly 100 million liters — already secured through Canberra's AUD 7.5 billion ($5.34 billion) Fuel and Fertilizer Security Facility. Negotiations with other regional suppliers were continuing, the government said.1
But China's overall refined product exports told a different story. Total exports stood at 4.36 million tons in June 2026, down 18.3% year-on-year, according to data cited by China Global South. Fuel oil was the exception: China exported 577,000 barrels per day of fuel oil that month, Reuters reported on July 20 (2026-07-20) citing official customs data, the highest since January and 18% above June 2025 levels. First-half fuel oil exports reached 10.87 million metric tons, up 7.7% annually.4
That divergence between surging fuel oil and sharply falling aggregate refined exports limits any straightforward reading of China's sustained export capacity. Saxo Bank, in a note posted on Thursday, August 27 (2026-08-27), flagged "continued stress in refined products," citing EIA inventory data. US jet fuel product supplied over the preceding four-week period ran 2.3% below the equivalent stretch a year earlier. Demand was softening even as supply tightened.6
ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $102.64 per barrel on September 18 (2026-09-18). At that price, one potential source of incremental crude demand support stays dormant. Analysts at Sparta Commodities said China could resume strategic petroleum reserve purchases if Brent fell below $70 per barrel; that threshold remains more than $30 away.3
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve adds a further constraint. The SPR fell by 3.7 million barrels in the week of August 17 (2026-08-17), Naeem Aslam, CIO of Zaye Capital Markets, wrote in analysis published by Rigzone on August 27 (2026-08-27), leaving US strategic stocks at levels not recorded since August 1982.6
Australia's jet fuel procurement talks with other neighboring countries, described as active as of May 19 (2026-05-19), offer the most direct test of whether China can sustain aviation fuel exports beyond those initial emergency cargoes. China exported more fuel oil but shipped fewer total refined products in June 2026, putting a practical ceiling on how many shortage markets Beijing can supply simultaneously and at what pace.1,4