RGGI's 2024 Revenues Forecast to Avoid 4.3 Billion Short Tons of Carbon Emissions
New analysis of the Northeast cap-and-trade program quantifies its long-run emissions avoidance as New Jersey weighs a state-level alternative with negligible pollution impact.
The revenues collected under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in 2024 and invested in clean energy and efficiency programs are forecast to avoid 4.3 billion short tons of carbon emissions over their lifetime. That is roughly equivalent to the carbon released by burning 440 billion gallons of gasoline, according to analysis published Wednesday (2026-09-16).3
Those projections surface as Northeast states debate RGGI's future. The program covers power plants across seven states in New England and New York, and its carbon price is credited by researchers as a significant driver of the region's coal exit: coal supplied 15% of electricity generation in those states in 2007, and as of Wednesday (2026-09-16) no coal plant operates in any of them, Canary Media reported, citing expert analysis. Researchers noted other contributing factors alongside the carbon price, but the directional shift in the generation stack is not in dispute.3
In New England, RGGI revenues invested in 2025 are projected to yield $1.3 billion in lifetime savings. A researcher quoted in Wednesday's (2026-09-16) reporting pushed back against structural changes driven by near-term price pressures: "We can't lose sight of that just because of a moment of high prices."3
With coal gone from the Northeast's generation stack, natural gas fills the dispatchable role. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas was at $2.89/MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-09-16). RGGI's carbon price raises gas-fired generation's operating cost directly, which makes the program's price level a live input to dispatch decisions and to investment choices for new capacity across the region.3
But New Jersey is examining an exit. An analysis commissioned by a business group found a state-specific cap-and-trade scheme would generate about $135 million in annual revenue for the state. Cantor, identified as the analyst behind the work, acknowledged the scheme would do little to curb pollution. Both that figure and the 4.3 billion short-ton avoidance projection appeared in the same Wednesday (2026-09-16) reporting.3
The gap between those two outcomes is wide. A system generating $135 million annually while, by its designer's own account, doing little to cut emissions sits far from a regional program that helped eliminate coal from seven states over roughly two decades. If New Jersey proceeds and other states adopt similar state-specific schemes, the lifetime avoidance projections attached to RGGI's 2024 proceeds would face downward revision.3
Load growth from data centers adds pressure to the regional generation mix. Data centers consumed about 4.6% of total U.S. electricity in 2024, a share that could nearly triple by 2028, government estimates show. Natural gas supplied more than 40% of data center power that year, the International Energy Agency reported. Greater gas-fired generation in RGGI-covered states means higher carbon volumes flowing through the auction mechanism.1
The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook projected U.S. power-sector gas consumption at 43.7 Bcf/d for summer 2026 (June through September), essentially flat with summer 2025 despite a 2% rise in total electricity demand, with renewable growth absorbing much of the additional load. Summer 2027 is forecast higher still. The EIA put that season at 46.1 Bcf/d, which would set a record and exceed the 2024 peak by 3%.2
New Jersey's proposed scheme offers state revenue and, by its analyst's own account, little else on emissions. The 4.3 billion short-ton avoidance figure for RGGI's 2024 proceeds rests on the program remaining intact and continuing to price carbon at levels that change dispatch behavior. The $1.3 billion in projected New England savings rests on the same assumption, and both numbers become harder to defend if states begin designing around revenue generation first.3