Financial Firms' 45% Share of U.S. ITC Transfer Market Drives Discounts for Gas and Power Developers
A supply glut of transferable federal tax credits has shifted negotiating power toward financial buyers, with gas and power project sellers absorbing steeper discounts.
Clean energy developers are generating federal investment tax credits faster than corporate buyers need them, and financial services companies holding 45% of U.S. ITC transfer market volume are using the imbalance to press for better terms, according to a report published by Utility Dive on Wednesday (2026-09-16). Energy and utility companies account for 34% of transfer market volume, a split that leaves gas and power project sellers with a narrow base of competing bids.3
The credit surplus has built quickly. Residential solar alone was projected to generate approximately $6 billion in investment tax credits in 2025, according to Reunion Infrastructure data. Sunnova, the residential solar finance company formerly listed on the New York Stock Exchange, reported $207.4 million in ITC sales in 2023 and approximately $645.5 million in 2024, a more than threefold increase as transferable credit issuance expanded rapidly after Congress opened the mechanism.3
Natural gas companies have entered the ITC market directly. In March 2026, insurance firm Athene and a reinsurance affiliate purchased $22.9 million in credits from Land2Gas LLC, paying $21.6 million — a discount of roughly 6%. Land2Gas is an Athene subsidiary, so the deal was between affiliated parties and cannot be read as competitive open-market pricing. Even so, the seller accepted a clear markdown in an internal transaction.3
Athene had also bought an undisclosed portion of $17.4 million in credits from a Florida project in 2025. Together, the deals show how actively financial firms are accumulating credits and how widely the seller base now spans gas and clean energy projects.3
When nearly half of all transfer volume sits with banks, insurers, and tax-equity desks, developers with project financing on a schedule take what the market offers. Financial buyers can evaluate competing deals and decline. A gas developer servicing construction debt cannot.3
Underlying gas market conditions add to the squeeze. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month stood at $2.91/MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-09-16), down from $2.975 during the week of August 31, 2026, when futures gained roughly 3% on warm weather and recovering LNG feedgas demand. Working gas in storage was 3,214 billion cubic feet as of that same week, 5% above the five-year average. The weekly injection of 30 billion cubic feet came in below the five-year average of 37 billion cubic feet, providing a floor under prices but not reversing the broader supply surplus.2
The EIA had forecast average Henry Hub at just under $3.50/MMBtu for 2026; with the front-month at $2.91 in mid-September (2026-09-16), a sharp fourth-quarter rally would be needed to approach that average. Gas revenues at current price levels push developers to lean harder on ancillary income streams, of which ITC transfers are one of the larger available options.1
Corporate tax planning typically accelerates in Q4, which could draw incremental buyers into the ITC transfer market before year-end. But with residential solar alone projected to generate $6 billion in credits in 2025, the credit supply pipeline shows no sign of thinning quickly. The March 2026 discount on the Land2Gas transaction may be closer to the norm than the exception.3