Diesel Crack Spreads Break Records as Refinery Outages and Gulf Disruptions Converge
Goldman Sachs has doubled its refiner profit forecast after US diesel crack spreads topped $100 per barrel, with Gulf fuel exports running at just 40% of pre-war volumes.
NYMEX heating oil front-month was trading at $5.26 per gallon on Tuesday (2026-09-15), reflecting a diesel crack spread that pushed above $100 per barrel in the United States last month, setting an all-time record. Rigzone reported the $100-per-barrel threshold was breached by August 19 (2026-08-19), as a global fuel-making crunch drove margins to territory not seen before.3
Goldman Sachs subsequently revised its refining outlook sharply upward. The bank's commodity team put its diesel refining margin forecast at $63 per barrel — roughly double its previous estimate — and doubled its forecast for total refiner profits from the current squeeze, according to oilprice.com on August 31 (2026-08-31).4
The margin spike has more than one driver. During the week of August 31 (2026-08-31), oilprice.com reported that renewed US-Iran strikes, Russia's ban on diesel exports, and sustained Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refining infrastructure had together pushed middle distillate crack spreads to record highs. Each pressure point is distinct; together they removed meaningful volumes of diesel from already-thin markets.5
Fuel exports from the Persian Gulf have been hit harder than crude flows. Goldman analysts estimated in their August 31 (2026-08-31) note that Gulf fuel exports were running at roughly 40% of pre-war levels, against 70-80% for crude oil exports. The gap reflects the infrastructure and logistical barriers specific to moving refined products through disrupted shipping corridors.4
Refinery outages are adding to the pressure. Goldman's commodity team put current outage rates at 60% above the seasonal average and said diesel tightness is expected to persist into 2027. That timeline rules out a rapid recovery through normalized maintenance schedules alone.4
Rory Johnston, speaking on the Macro Voices podcast, noted that crude oil is currently the weakest segment of the petroleum complex — and the numbers bear that out. ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $109.08 per barrel on Tuesday (2026-09-15), yet heating oil and diesel prices remain close to $5.25 per gallon. Wide crack spreads follow naturally when product demand holds while crude softens relative to finished goods.2
ICE Brent crossed $100 per barrel on September 9 (2026-09-09) as Middle East hostilities intensified, Bloomberg reported. Goldman oil strategist Daan Struyven wrote that the intensity and geographic breadth of tanker attacks — a highly uncertain variable — will remain the key driver of whether Gulf oil exports recover and how quickly.6
Europe faces a structural shortfall that current conditions have amplified. Goldman noted that Europe is falling further behind on refining capacity. The Dangote refinery in Nigeria, a $17 billion project, is under development and could eventually ease the Atlantic basin supply deficit, but it offers no near-term relief to European diesel markets.4
US refiners had already been generating some of the strongest profit margins in years as of early July (2026-07-03), Rigzone reported, attributing the gains to supply-chain disruptions stemming from the Hormuz crisis. Analysts at the time argued that a refining sector already running at thin spare capacity would see margins widen further once feedstock flows from the Gulf were constrained — and the subsequent data have confirmed that view.1
The main variable to track is the geographic scope of tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf. Goldman's own note identified that breadth as the key uncertain driver of export recovery. If Gulf fuel exports stay near 40% of pre-war volumes through autumn, the case for diesel tightness extending well into 2027 firms considerably. An unexpected recovery in product flows would put Goldman's $63-per-barrel margin forecast under pressure — and give refiners and traders the first real test of how much of the current spread is geopolitical premium versus structural capacity loss.6,4