Russia Lifts Crude Exports to Highest Pace in Weeks as Brent Holds Near $108
Moscow's seaborne loadings surged to 27.06 million barrels in the week ending September 13, capturing peak revenue from a price spike driven by Saudi infrastructure attacks.
Russia's seaborne crude loadings totalled 27.06 million barrels across 38 tankers in the week ending September 13 (2026-09-13), pushing the four-week average to 3.54 million barrels per day — the highest pace in weeks. That export surge lifted Moscow's estimated weekly revenue to around $1.9 billion, the highest weekly haul since late June, according to data cited by cryptobriefing.com. The timing was straightforward: ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $107.99 a barrel as of September 16 (2026-09-16), up more than 60% year-to-date after drone strikes on Saudi pipeline infrastructure pushed prices sharply higher.6
Saudi Arabia is simultaneously producing less. The kingdom's output fell 75,000 barrels per day in August to 7.28 million bpd, which NDTV Profit reported as the lowest OPEC production since 1990. OPEC and its allies collectively raised output by 297,000 bpd to 38.06 million bpd in August, but the aggregate increase masks how sharply Riyadh's own contribution has shrunk.5
Drone strikes on Saudi infrastructure compound the supply picture. Attacks on the kingdom's 400,000 barrel-per-day Jazan refinery have continued for weeks, threatening refined product markets beyond just crude. Vortexa data show oil held on ships at sea has fallen by more than 150 million barrels since mid-July, signalling that waterborne supply is being consumed rather than replenished.2
ICE Brent front-month first crossed $100 on September 9 (2026-09-09) as US and Iranian forces escalated attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. A ceasefire was attempted but never held. The strait carries supply representing roughly 4% of global oil demand, and any sustained closure would remove barrels with limited rerouting options.1,6
Brent climbed to $105 on September 10 (2026-09-10), its highest level since May 25, 2026, with futures rising as much as 2.3% in a single London session. The contract has gained nearly 30% from its early-August lows.4,2
China has added buying pressure to a market already tight on availability. The world's largest crude importer increased purchases in recent weeks after several months of softer demand, ING analysts said. That demand recovery ran alongside the Hormuz anxiety to drive the price surge through early September.3
ICE Brent front-month was off just 0.11% at $107.99 as of September 16 (2026-09-16), with WTI crude front-month at $104.61, down 0.07%. The muted session-to-session moves suggest much of the geopolitical premium is already priced in; traders appear positioned for further escalation rather than reacting to the current level of disruption. Some positioning signals lean bearish on both ICE Brent and WTI front-months on finance-driven factors, a reminder that a contract up 60% year-to-date carries speculative length that can unwind quickly if the geopolitical temperature drops or Chinese demand softens.5,6
Russia's export surge introduces a partial counterweight to the Saudi production cuts. Moscow is not bound by OPEC's collective decisions, and its incentive at current prices is direct: ship more, collect more. Russian barrels flow primarily east, however, not through the Strait of Hormuz that markets are pricing for disruption, so the offset is structural rather than logistical.6
The downstream cost is sharpest for large crude importers. Motilal Oswal estimated India's FY27 current account deficit at 1.4% of GDP, or around $56 billion, based on a $90 per barrel crude assumption. Should crude remain above $90 for most of the fiscal year, that deficit could widen to around 1.7% of GDP, or roughly $71 billion, driven by the higher import bill. ICE Brent front-month is currently trading well above that baseline.7
The immediate variable for crude markets is the Jazan refinery. If strikes materially reduce throughput at the 400,000 bpd facility, the impact on diesel and jet fuel could arrive faster than any adjustment to crude flows, given how little inventory buffer exists in refined products after months of elevated consumption.2