EIA Projects Record U.S. Gas Output in 2026 as Haynesville Drives Second-Half Ramp
The EIA's August forecast of 122.5 Bcf/d in marketed production, combined with a 141 Bcf storage surplus, keeps NYMEX Henry Hub front-month pinned below $3.
U.S. natural gas production is on course for a new annual record, with OilPrice.com reporting on September 10 (2026-09-10) that the EIA placed dry gas output at 111.7 billion cubic feet per day for 2026, up from 107.6 Bcf/d in 2025, and rising further to 115.9 Bcf/d by 2027. The EIA's August 12 (2026-08-12) Short-Term Energy Outlook set marketed production at a higher 122.5 Bcf/d for the full year, eclipsing the 118.5 Bcf/d record set in 2025.7,5,6
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was trading at $2.94/MMBtu on Tuesday (2026-09-15), still below $3 and consistently weighed by a storage surplus of 141 Bcf above year-ago levels — about 8% higher than the same point in 2025.1,2
Haynesville occupies a central position in the EIA's growth accounting. The agency's May 21 (2026-05-21) Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast the basin's output rising 6% this year and 8% in 2027, placing it alongside the Permian as one of the two primary regional drivers of national supply growth.3
The Permian is projected at 29.2 Bcf/d for 2026, 6% above its 2025 level. But the EIA flagged active infrastructure constraints in that basin, which it expects to lift in the latter part of 2026 before penciling in 10% growth for 2027. Haynesville, as a gas-dominant play, faces no equivalent bottleneck in the agency's base case.3
Lower 48 marketed production already averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in Q1 2026, 4% above the same quarter in 2025, per the EIA's May STEO. Reaching the 122.5 Bcf/d full-year target requires a measurably stronger second half, weighted toward Haynesville and a recovering Permian.3
The EIA's June 16 (2026-06-16) outlook updated the production math: 3.3% output growth in 2026, equivalent to roughly 3.9 Bcf/d over 2025, with a further 2.5% expansion in 2027. Rigzone reported the agency expected the U.S. to produce 4.6 Bcf/d more natural gas than previously modeled.4
Storage data reinforces the supply overhang. In the most recently reported week, working gas fell by just 52 Bcf, well below the five-year average withdrawal of 168 Bcf, Nasdaq data showed. That below-average draw extended a surplus that had already put inventories 8% above year-ago levels.1,2
Prices have reflected the glut for months. During the week of May 11 (2026-05-11), NYMEX Henry Hub front-month briefly fell toward $2.75/MMBtu before cold weather forecasts triggered a partial recovery, with April futures settling around $2.86 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Nasdaq reported.1,2
Comstock Resources, which operates entirely in natural gas and carries significant Haynesville exposure, illustrates how some producers are working through the low-price environment. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Comstock's 2026 earnings per share projects a 37% year-over-year rise, suggesting volume growth is doing the work that prices are not.2
The outstanding variable is how quickly the storage surplus narrows before peak winter demand. If Haynesville's 6% growth lands as forecast, weekly injection prints are likely to continue running above seasonal norms through October, deepening the overhang ahead of withdrawal season. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month clearing $3 on a sustained basis would require either a sharper-than-expected demand surge or a deceleration in production that current EIA projections do not anticipate.3,1,2