ERCOT Weekly Load Holds Near Records as Texas Demand Surge Tests Grid Capacity
Texas grid weekly averages ran 10% above summer 2025 peaks through late August, with data centers adding permanent load that does not ease with cooler weather.
Average hourly electricity demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas hit 74.5 GW for the week ending August 22 (2026-08-22), a new weekly average record, before easing to 73.7 GW for the week ending August 29 (2026-08-29), the EIA said in its September 3 (2026-09-03) brief. Both readings ran 6% above the prior weekly record and 10% above the highest weekly average posted anywhere in summer 2025.5,4
Sustained heat drove the late-August surge, the EIA said, with temperatures across Texas running persistently above seasonal norms through the period, keeping cooling loads elevated week after week rather than retreating as August advanced.4
The weekly averages reflect a summer that also broke the grid's instantaneous demand record. ERCOT recorded a peak of 91.089 GW on July 22 (2026-07-22), per the ERCOT website, eclipsing the prior record of 85.508 GW set on August 10, 2023 (2023-08-10) and the 80.148 GW mark from July 20, 2022 (2022-07-20). Three consecutive summers, three new annual records, each jump larger than the one before.2
Gas-fired generation carries the heaviest marginal load in ERCOT. Gas generators ran hard through a stretch that would normally bring some seasonal demand relief. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas held at $2.91/MMBtu in Tuesday's (2026-09-15) session, flat on the day.4
Behind the heat-driven spike sits a base of load that does not cool with the weather. Data centers and crypto-mining facilities have added demand in Texas at a pace that outstrips any prior wave of industrial load. ERCOT's board approved two sets of interconnection rules on Tuesday (2026-06-02) to manage what had become an unmanageable connection queue. One framework reviews large load applications in batches rather than individually; the other imposes new technical criteria on big electricity users before they can connect.1
Jeff Billo, ERCOT's vice president of interconnection and grid analysis, said at the June 2 (2026-06-02) board meeting that roughly 100 GW of projects could qualify for Batch Zero, the first round under the new framework. The size of that queue illustrates the pace at which inbound demand applications have accumulated.1
CEO Pablo Vegas offered a supply-side correction at the same meeting. He said the prior estimate of 228 GW of new capacity coming online by 2032 was "too high of a figure based on realistic expectations." That walk-back sharpens the gap between a fast-rising demand curve and the supply additions Texas can realistically count on.1
Dan Woodfin, ERCOT's vice president of system operations, had told the board in June that demand could rise above 92 GW during hotter-than-normal stretches combined with elevated data center and crypto-mining activity. The July 22 (2026-07-22) peak of 91.089 GW came within 1 GW of that estimate.1
Ascend Analytics projected in August that ERCOT peak demand could reach 120 GW by 2030, a rise of more than 30% above the July peak, according to Utility Dive's August 12 (2026-08-12) report. Ascend also flagged supply constraints as a binding factor on how quickly new generation can respond to that trajectory, a complication ERCOT's CEO effectively confirmed by revising the 2032 supply figure downward.3
September temperatures in Texas are the immediate variable: if above-normal heat extends well into the shoulder period, the 91 GW peak from July could be approached again before the summer books close. Past that, the pace at which Batch Zero projects complete interconnection under the June (2026-06-02) rules is the key indicator of whether supply additions can track a demand trajectory that Ascend puts at 120 GW by 2030 and ERCOT's own CEO now declines to underwrite.1,3