UK Gas Could Hit 2022 Highs on Cold Snap, Analyst Warns
Sub-70% European storage and Iran-driven LNG supply cuts leave UK gas exposed to a 60% spike if cold weather persists this autumn.
A prolonged UK cold snap lasting roughly three weeks could push gas prices 60% above current levels to their highest point since the 2022 energy price crisis, an analyst told Montel this week (week of 2026-09-07).5
ICE Endex TTF front-month, Europe's gas benchmark, was trading at €79.51/MWh on Monday (2026-09-14). A 60% surge from current levels would push European hub prices close to the extremes recorded during the Russia-supply shock four years ago. UK NBP moves in close alignment with TTF, so British gas prices would track any such move.5
The storage deficit is the reason that scenario stays in play. European gas sites were less than 70% full as of Tuesday (2026-09-08), OilPrice.com reported, compared with 82% at the same point in 2025 and a five-year average above 80%. The shortfall has accumulated since the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran disrupted global LNG flows earlier this year, removing a supply source Europe had grown reliant on.3,2
David Lewis, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, described Europe's storage situation as a "very risky situation" in August (2026-08-05), Reuters reported. The disruption weighs on UK and European gas because LNG accounts for roughly 25% of Europe's total supply, Stifel analyst Chris Wheaton told CNBC on May 19 (2026-05-19). Goldman Sachs estimated around the same time (week of 2026-05-18) that the Middle East conflict had cut near-term global LNG supply by about 19%. Those cargo volumes have not returned.2,1
Rebuilding storage requires LNG that is not freely available. Asia is competing directly for the same supply. JKM, Asia's spot LNG benchmark, stood at $24.88/MMBtu on Monday (2026-09-14), and OilPrice.com reported on Tuesday (2026-09-08) that Asian spot prices had reached their highest since 2022. Cargoes diverted east do not reach European regasification terminals.3
The 2% gain in ICE Endex TTF front-month trading on Tuesday (2026-09-08) was not an isolated session move. In May, CNBC reported on May 19 (2026-05-19) that ICE Endex TTF front-month had risen 35% in a single session to above €60/MWh, with the weekly gain reaching roughly 76%. Monday's (2026-09-14) reading of €79.51/MWh shows those gains have extended through the summer rather than reversed.3,1
Germany faces the same exposure. A Montel poll of analysts published this week (week of 2026-09-07) found Germany could record its highest monthly power prices since the 2022 energy crisis this autumn, even with mild near-term weather forecasts in play, with record low gas storage and LNG supply constraints driving the forecast. German baseload front-month was at €163.08/MWh on Monday (2026-09-14).4
Mild weather forecasts remain the principal check on the upside scenario. If temperatures track seasonal norms through October, draw rates slow and the storage shortfall loses near-term urgency. Some market participants are positioned bearishly on European gas, citing geopolitics — the possibility that a ceasefire or Strait of Hormuz reopening could return LNG supply faster than current pricing allows for.4
But any geopolitical resolution would require time to reroute cargoes, restart flows, and refill storage to levels where a sustained cold weather event is manageable. Europe enters this autumn with a thinner buffer than at any comparable point in recent years. The storage deficit the analyst cited as the precondition for a 60% price surge already exists. What remains absent is the cold.5,2,3