NOAA Puts 55% Odds on a Below-Average Atlantic Season as Bertha's Gulf Warnings Fade
Gulf Coast and Carolinas remain the highest-risk zones with El Nino shear suppressing storm counts, leaving offshore production and LNG export capacity exposed.
Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday (2026-07-20), triggering warnings across northern Gulf Coast states for flooding rains, storm surge and dangerous swells.8 A quiet mid-season can shift fast.
By mid-June (2026-06-17) the Atlantic basin had gone dormant. Large Saharan dust plumes were suppressing development and no tropical activity was expected across the basin over a seven-day window.4 That quiet stretched from June into July before Bertha formed in the Gulf.8
NOAA's seasonal outlook carries a 55% chance of a below-average storm total for 2026, citing an El Nino pattern that typically raises wind shear and cuts storm counts across the Caribbean and Gulf.4 Forecasters were direct: below-average does not mean clear.
Forecasters still expected as many as 16 named storms this season. The Gulf Coast and Carolinas face the greatest threats. Even an average season, they warned, can pack a major punch for coastal communities and the infrastructure behind them.2
Texas holds a lower-risk position for 2026, according to forecasters, but hot Gulf waters and the potential for rapid intensification complicate that reading. Storms Allison and Beryl are the reference points cited for why residents are preparing early regardless of the softer odds.3
The 2026 season opened unusually. Rain along the Gulf Coast around June 16 (2026-06-16) was a candidate for the first named storm of the year.7 Forecasters had already flagged June as a possible window for the first Atlantic named storm.5 Bertha, arriving in July, confirmed what those early outlooks had signalled.8
History shows how fast setups mature. Tropical Storm Ida formed in the Caribbean on August 25, 2021, and forecasters warned it could rapidly strengthen into one of the strongest storms of that Atlantic season before reaching the US Gulf Coast.1 Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday (2024-11-04) and was forecast to intensify into a hurricane over warm water while tracking toward the Gulf — a rare November threat that illustrated how late the season can run.6
Energy markets ended Friday's session (2026-09-11) without a weather premium priced in. ICE Brent crude front-month held at $104.32/bbl, NYMEX WTI front-month at $99.99/bbl and NYMEX Henry Hub front-month at $2.83/MMBtu, all flat. With a 16-storm seasonal ceiling still in play, the calm in prompt contracts reflects positioning, not a reduced probability of disruption.2
Atlantic LNG arbitrage is the channel through which a US Gulf production outage would reach European gas. ICE Endex TTF front-month closed Friday (2026-09-11) down 3.31% at €79.51/MWh. JKM Asian LNG stood at $24.88/MMBtu. Gulf Coast and Carolinas infrastructure remains in the high-risk zone throughout the season, and without an actual export disruption, Henry Hub carries no direct read-through to TTF beyond that arb route.2
El Nino shear is what kept the season suppressed through June. If that pattern frays before October, hot Gulf waters return to play and the 16-storm ceiling begins to look like a base case rather than an upper bound.4,2 Refiners, offshore operators and LNG shippers will be tracking the same seven-day outlooks that went quiet in mid-June (2026-06-17).4