Hydrogen Council Counts $130 Billion in Clean Hydrogen Commitments as China Leads Delivery
China holds over half of global renewable hydrogen capacity while a 5 Mtpa policy gap threatens to strand projects before 2030.
Clean hydrogen projects worldwide have attracted more than $130 billion in committed investment across more than 570 projects totalling 6.9 million tonnes per annum of capacity, the Hydrogen Council's Global Hydrogen Compass 2026 reported on Monday (2026-09-14), co-authored with McKinsey & Company and drawing on views from around 70 global CEOs.6
China accounts for more than half of that committed renewable hydrogen capacity and 90% of new operational capacity added globally since 2025 — figures that put Beijing's industrial policy well ahead of every other jurisdiction in actual delivery, not just announced ambition.6
For anyone pricing hydrogen trade flows, the scale of the Chinese lead raises a specific question. If Chinese overcapacity in green hydrogen follows the pattern seen in solar panels and batteries, export pricing pressure could eventually undercut projects being financed at much higher cost in Europe and North America. That dynamic is not yet visible in the data, but it is what traders and project sponsors in those markets will need to price in before committing to long-term offtake.6
Europe is the second-largest market by the Hydrogen Council's count, leading in project numbers and recording a 35% increase in relative investment since 2025. But project count and committed capital are not the same as molecules delivered. The Middle East conflict has reframed energy security arguments in Europe's favour, accelerating some decisions, according to oilprice.com reporting on September 10 (2026-09-10).5,6
The United States holds a different position in the technology mix: roughly 75% of global committed low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia capacity sits in US projects, reflecting the pull of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits toward carbon-capture-based production rather than the electrolysis-heavy build-out dominant in China and Europe.6
Ninety percent of the 6.9 Mtpa of committed capacity is already under construction or operational, the Hydrogen Council said. That filters out projects that exist only in term sheets. Still, construction progress and commercial offtake are not the same thing. Several large-scale projects have moved to final investment decision without locking long-term buyers.6
The demand side is where the numbers tighten. Existing policies could unlock around 11 Mtpa of clean hydrogen demand by 2030, but only 6 Mtpa is currently supported by enacted and enforced policy commitments. The remaining 5 Mtpa depends on governments implementing measures they have announced but not yet legislated. That gap sits between committed supply and credible demand, and it is what makes hydrogen project finance still uncomfortable for most commercial lenders.6
Uniper is navigating exactly that tension in Germany. The company has opened a call for expressions of interest for its planned Wilhelmshaven ammonia-to-hydrogen import terminal, which would receive up to 2.6 million tonnes of ammonia per year, crack it into around 350,000 tonnes of hydrogen, and connect to Germany's 9,000-kilometre core hydrogen network. Uniper has already signed an offtake agreement for up to 500,000 tonnes per year of green ammonia from AM Green's 1.3 gigawatt project in India, securing supply. Finding buyers for the hydrogen output is the harder side.2
The European Commission approved EUR 1.3 billion in German government support for renewable hydrogen projects in May (2026-05-26), covering projects that bid but failed to win earlier auction rounds. That backstop has kept some marginal projects alive, but state support at that scale still implies a significant cost gap versus incumbent fossil fuels.3
Wood Mackenzie puts the delivered cost of low-carbon ammonia in Europe at $700 to $1,100 per tonne, estimating that the lowest-cost green projects are now price-competitive with conventional supply at the bottom of that range. The spread within that band is wide enough to make blanket statements about competitiveness premature. A project landing at $700 per tonne is a different commercial proposition from one at $1,100.4
The merchant hydrogen market — covering traded rather than captive supply — was valued at $27.51 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $44.37 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 8.13%, according to TechSci Research. Oil refining, chemicals, metallurgy, and fertilizers account for over 90 million metric tonnes of annual hydrogen consumption, with more than 70% derived from unabated fossil fuels. That incumbent supply base is what clean hydrogen must displace.1
Whether European and US governments move the 5 Mtpa of announced-but-unenforced policy demand into statute before the 2027-2028 window — when the current pipeline of projects will need final commercial decisions — is now the proximate risk for project sponsors. Without that legislative follow-through, supply commitments already made, including Uniper's Indian ammonia offtake, run ahead of contracted demand.6,2