Jeff Currie Calls $5 Gasoline Before November Midterms as Diesel Sets National Record
Real Macro's Jeff Currie told Bloomberg Television on Friday that pump prices will hit $5 for regular gasoline before November's midterm elections.
U.S. diesel crossed $6 a gallon on a nationwide average basis for the first time in history, and Jeff Currie told Bloomberg Television on Friday (2026-09-11) that $5 regular gasoline will follow before the November midterm elections.7
Currie spent more than a decade running Goldman Sachs' commodities research desk before founding Real Macro. AAA data put the U.S. average for regular gasoline at $4.22 on Wednesday (2026-09-09), up nearly 42% from the $2.98 seen before the war began. Reaching $5 from that level would require a rise of roughly 18% in approximately eight weeks.6,7
Diesel averaged $5.94 on Wednesday (2026-09-09) per AAA, up nearly 58% from the start of the conflict, before crossing $6 by Friday (2026-09-11) to set an all-time nominal high without accounting for inflation. CNBC noted that gasoline prices are about 30% higher than a year ago, while diesel is up 46%.6,5
Rising diesel prices lift transportation costs for goods moved by truck, train, and ship, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reported. That pass-through to consumer prices extends fuel cost pressure well beyond the pump.6
ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $104.32 per barrel as of September 13, with NYMEX WTI front-month at $99.99 per barrel. Goldman Sachs had forecast Brent to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 as of mid-July, a projection the bank flagged as carrying more upside risk than its base case, Business Insider reported.4
ICE Brent jumped as much as 4% on Monday (2026-07-13) after the U.S. resumed strikes against Iran following the collapse of an interim ceasefire agreement, trading near $90 per barrel by Sunday (2026-07-19) before continuing to climb, Business Insider reported. The benchmark has since settled above $100.4
Bank of America analysts attributed the refined products surge to additional refinery outages in Russia, reduced refining activity elsewhere, and sharply declining inventories, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reported. Wide refining margins have amplified the crude price signal at the pump.6
NYMEX heating oil futures settled at $4.99 per gallon as of September 13, while NYMEX gasoline futures settled at $3.31 per gallon. The gap between those wholesale levels and the $4.22 gasoline and $6-plus diesel consumers see at the pump reflects taxes, blending costs, and retail margins.6,7
Currie's August analysis noted roughly 100 million to 120 million barrels of crude trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz following a supply surge in late June and early July. That crude cannot reach consuming markets freely, limiting relief that elevated regional output would otherwise provide to refinery feedstock supply.5
President Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday (2026-06-30) ordering U.S. gasoline retailers to cut prices "immediately." Retailers price against wholesale benchmarks and had no mechanism for unilateral reductions. House Democrats formed an energy affordability working group and held a first listening session on Thursday (2026-06-11), E&E News reported, debating how deeply to commit to specific policy solutions before November.2,1
The EIA cut its 2026 and 2027 U.S. regular gasoline price projections in its July 7 short-term energy outlook, a revision that subsequent price moves have since overtaken.3
Bank of America's warning on continuing inventory declines and constrained refining capacity points to no obvious relief mechanism before November. Russian refinery throughput and Strait of Hormuz crude flows are the nearest sources of potential downward pressure — and neither has shown signs of easing.6,5