China's EV Sales Hit 65% of August Market as Sinopec Sees Oil Demand Down 8.9% This Year
Sinopec expects Chinese oil demand to fall 8.9% in 2026 as EV adoption accelerates past government targets and demand destruction reaches the downstream refining sector.
Electric vehicles and hybrids took 65% of China's total passenger car sales in August, according to Passenger Car Association data cited by Bloomberg, putting Beijing's official 70% target for 2030 within reach faster than the government's own planners assumed.5
Beijing's new automotive five-year plan, drafted by nearly a dozen government agencies, set that 70% threshold for new energy vehicles in passenger car sales by 2030. Analysts now say the goal could arrive earlier, given that this year's oil and fuel price shock has accelerated the shift. At the end of 2025, new energy vehicles already represented 54% of passenger vehicle sales. The jump to 65% in the eight months since narrows the remaining distance to single digits.5
For petroleum markets, that pace is translating directly into measurable demand destruction. Sinopec, the world's top refiner by capacity, expects Chinese oil demand to fall 8.9% in 2026 from a year earlier, driven by elevated prices and the pace of electrification. Gasoline demand is forecast to decline 8.7%, while diesel consumption is expected to drop 11.4%, according to Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute.5 Sinopec's head has said Chinese oil demand very likely peaked in 2025, earlier than most industry projections.4
The trigger for the acceleration was the Hormuz disruption earlier this year. Global EV sales surged following the Middle East oil supply shock, extending an adoption curve that was already building before the conflict. ICE Brent crude front-month sat at $104.32 per barrel on September 12, sustaining the fuel-cost case for electrification across most consumer markets.3
Beijing's plan is not confined to passenger cars. The five-year automotive blueprint also targets 40% of new commercial vehicle sales to be electric by 2030. Commercial vehicles consume significantly more diesel per unit than passenger cars, so their electrification carries disproportionate weight in any aggregate demand projection.5
Globally, Chinese manufacturers are driving EV adoption well beyond China's borders. Exports hit a record $9.4 billion in April, according to think tank Ember's analysis of Chinese customs data. Africa imported around 44,000 Chinese EVs in 2025, up 130% from the year before, per Chinese Commerce Ministry data. Chinese automakers now supply roughly 60% of all electric cars sold worldwide, the IEA said.2
The IEA's latest Global EV Outlook projects worldwide electric car sales reaching 23 million in 2026, nearly 30% of all cars sold, up from one in four new cars in 2025 when global EV sales rose 20% to more than 20 million vehicles.1 Growth is uneven. Global EV sales fell 8% in the first quarter of 2026 after policy shifts in China and the United States before the trend resumed.1
For the refining sector, the direction is pointed. Analysts have said that decelerating road fuel demand could trigger early closure of roughly 40 oil refineries worldwide, and Sinopec's own volume forecasts already reflect the scale of that structural throughput loss.3
The binding constraint is charging infrastructure. In the emerging markets where Chinese EV exports are expanding fastest, grid capacity and charger deployment trail vehicle sales by a significant margin. Governments and state-owned utilities in Africa are playing a lead role in building out networks, a model analysts say could be replicated across Asia. But a 130% surge in Chinese EV imports to Africa does not guarantee the grid needed to charge them will follow at the same pace.2