Montel: Europe's "Poly-Crisis" Is Outpacing the Continent's Response
Three successive energy crises have cost European taxpayers an estimated €650 billion, and the EU's new fiscal flexibility measures face their first test before winter.
Tobias Federico, Montel's chief analyst, told the Montel Austrian Energy Day in Vienna on Thursday (2026-09-10) that Europe is only now beginning to respond to the scale of simultaneous energy threats it faces — a predicament he called a "poly-crisis." ICE Endex TTF front-month gas closed Thursday (2026-09-10) at €82.22/MWh, up 3.71%, while Austrian day-ahead power settled at €194.53/MWh on Thursday evening (2026-09-10).7
Those price moves reflect pressures accumulating over three years. Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe has cycled through crisis after crisis: gas supply cutoffs, a U.S.-Iran conflict that has squeezed Strait of Hormuz throughput, and now a drought-driven hydro shortfall hitting Italy, Austria and Switzerland simultaneously. The crises have not arrived in sequence. They are overlapping.3,5,7
European taxpayers have spent roughly €650 billion shielding households and businesses from cost-of-living fallout, a figure cited by former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. That expenditure was reactive. The European Commission moved on Monday (2026-08-17) toward something more deliberate, announcing increased fiscal flexibility and dedicated caps for energy security spending set at 0.3% of GDP per year.3,6
But the scale of Europe's underlying import dependency makes that spending room look modest. Official figures from the European Council show the EU imported 435 million tonnes of crude oil in 2025 alone, at a cost exceeding €212 billion. No amount of fiscal flexibility changes the structural exposure as long as that import volume persists.4
Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz is the most direct current pressure point. As the U.S.-Iran conflict has tightened access to the waterway, European importers have faced sustained crude price elevation. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $107.97/bbl early Friday (2026-09-11), with Dubai crude at $109.75/bbl, both reflecting continued Hormuz constraint.6,7
Greece and Cyprus have been among the loudest voices for a coordinated European response. Stavros Papastavrou, Greece's energy minister, said at an Atlantic Council event in June (2026-06-10) that Europe should be "united" in addressing how energy can be weaponized, pointing to Russian gas cutoffs and Iran's hold on the strait as the evidence base.2
Spanish energy executives pressed the same point in May. At an industry event on Tuesday (2026-05-19), leaders including Moeve's chief executive flagged a "real risk" of further price escalation and called for faster progress on supply security. Europe's reliance on foreign fossil fuel imports had become harder to ignore with each successive shock, they argued.1
Kerry was more unsparing at NATO's summit in Ankara in July (2026-07-30). "Energy has been used as a weapon against Europe twice in four years, and it will be again," he said. "Deterrence in this decade will be counted in megawatts as well as divisions, and Europe does not get unlimited winters to learn this lesson."3
Still, the Commission's 0.3% of GDP cap creates a tool, not a strategy. Deploying it requires political alignment across 27 member states, and Europe's record on pre-emptive energy investment, as opposed to reactive subsidy, is limited. With ICE Endex TTF front-month at €82.22/MWh by Thursday (2026-09-10), well before peak winter demand arrives, and the Iran situation unresolved, the pace at which governments activate the new fiscal space will matter more than the Brussels announcement itself.6,7