German Power Approaches 2022 Crisis Levels as Storage Deficit Deepens
German baseload front-month climbed 4.7% to €161.82/MWh on Wednesday (2026-09-09) as gas storage is forecast to miss the EU's 90% winter target.
German power front-month settled at €161.82/MWh on Wednesday (2026-09-09), up 4.74%. TTF front-month gas gained 4.56% in the same session to €79.29/MWh. A Montel poll of analysts found prices may be approaching levels last seen during Europe's 2022 energy crisis, notwithstanding forecasts of milder, wetter weather ahead. [live prices]
Germany's gas storage association Ines warned in early July (2026-07-07) that storage may reach only 76% of capacity this winter — the volume currently contracted by market participants. That falls well short of the EU's mandated target of 90%. Ines said the shortfall would constitute a supply risk under an exceptionally cold winter, and noted that the negative summer-winter gas spread has made economic injections considerably more difficult, compounding the problem.6
An analyst speaking at Montel's German Energy Day in Dusseldorf on Thursday (2026-05-21) said Germany would likely refill storage in time for winter but at heightened cost if injection activity started late. The summer-winter spread has since moved further against injection economics, making that assessment look optimistic.2
TTF front-month at €79.29/MWh on Wednesday (2026-09-09) already exceeds levels analysts polled by Montel in the week of 2026-05-18 forecast for the whole of Q2 2026. Those analysts had expected gas to average EUR 46.35/MWh through Q2 — up EUR 13.20, or 40%, from Q2 2025 — and German Q2 spot power to rise 17% year on year. The market has since moved considerably beyond those projections.1
Analysts told Montel in early July (2026-07-03) that German Q3 power prices may continue rising on more hot spells, evening spikes as solar generation drops off after sunset, and persistent gas supply uncertainty. French nuclear production remains strong, those analysts noted, providing cross-border import flows that limit some of the potential upside for German prices.5
The weather is also the main bearish counterargument. Wind power generation jumped 27% in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, according to an IWR analysis published in April, with Germany adding an estimated 5 GW of new turbines in 2025. German electricity prices fell 8.9% in the first half of the year as renewable output grew. A sufficiently mild and wet autumn could reassert that pattern.4
But wind output can collapse across a single trading session. German day-ahead electricity prices surged 29% on Wednesday (2026-05-27) as a European heatwave pushed up cooling demand and wind supply fell sharply, OilPrice.com reported. LSEG data cited by Reuters showed wind output expected at 4.4 GW the following day, down from an estimated 9.7 GW, while non-renewable load was set to jump 8.2 GW to 23.5 GW. That daily swing illustrates why storage levels matter more to winter pricing than autumn wind patterns.4
Germany also faces a structural supply reduction later this year. Its last three nuclear plants are due to close in December, a step assessed by the Economist in May 2026 as cutting electricity supply by 6%. European neighbours have pledged 15% gas consumption reductions, and Germany has been importing LNG from Qatar, Algeria and the United States to replace lost Russian pipeline volumes.3
German power Q+1 was priced at €170.12/MWh on Wednesday (2026-09-09), while Cal+1 sat at €129.75/MWh. The gap between those two contracts prices winter 2026-27 as the point of maximum stress. Storage injection rates over the next four to six weeks will either validate that positioning or give bears their opening. [live prices]