Europe's data center PPA shortfall drives hyperscalers toward nuclear
Offshore wind signed volumes collapsed to 100 MW in Q1 2026, leaving Europe's fast-growing data center load increasingly exposed to grid and merchant power.
Offshore wind PPA volumes in Europe fell to just 100 MW in the first quarter of 2026, a single Google offtake from EnBW, down from 1.35 GW signed across all of 2024.1 That collapse is happening while European data center capacity is racing toward 36 GW by 2030 from a 16 GW base in 2024, with roughly 12 GW of that addition concentrated in the final two years alone.1
European data center PPA volumes overall fell from 4.2 GW in 2024 to 2.6 GW in 2025, a 38% drop driven by falling capture rates in offshore wind and widening price disagreements between buyers and developers.1 Utilities and generators report that grid upgrade costs, equipment availability and permitting timelines have all worsened since mid-decade, extending the list of barriers beyond power availability itself.5
Data center-related PPAs still accounted for 20% of total European offtake between 2024 and the first quarter of 2026, the second-largest segment behind manufacturing and industrial buyers.1 Amazon alone has signed more than 3 GW since 2024 across offshore wind, solar and hybrid structures, so demand from anchor buyers is not the problem.1 Supply is. Developers cannot price and close deals quickly enough to match the pace of capacity buildout, and that gap is pushing procurement strategies toward alternatives.
Nuclear is the clearest beneficiary. France, Italy and eight other EU countries sent a letter to Commission Energy Director-General Ditte Juul Jørgensen demanding that nuclear be recognized as a clean energy source for data centers, escalating a fight over the sustainability criteria that govern the AI sector's power sourcing.2 For hyperscalers, dispatchable zero-carbon generation that does not depend on wind capture rates would resolve the core pricing problem stalling offshore wind deals. For nuclear operators, data centers offer a new class of long-duration, creditworthy offtakers.
The US is running a parallel track with larger numbers in play. Washington has stated a goal to quadruple US nuclear capacity by 2050 and fast-track advanced reactor approvals, with support now appearing in capital markets and corporate power deals rather than policy papers alone.3 IEA data project US data-center power demand will more than triple over the next decade, from 34.7 GW in 2024 to 106 GW by 2035, a scale no single generation type can supply.3
Oklo has established partnerships with major AI and data center operators for its Aurora powerhouse design, but the company still requires regulatory approval before it can deliver capacity.4 That gap between signed partnership and operational megawatt is where merchant gas generation and grid-scale storage stand to benefit in the interim. Reactors take years to license and build. Data centers need power in quarters.
Back in Europe, ICE Endex TTF front-month held at €75.83/MWh on September 9, steady on the day, while German power forward contracts sat at €154.49/MWh on the same session. Gas at that TTF level keeps combined-cycle generation competitive as a swing supplier in markets where clean contracted volumes are shrinking. If offshore wind signed volumes remain near 100 MW per quarter, gas-fired generation in Germany and the Netherlands becomes the marginal price setter more often than the contracted renewables pipeline would suggest.1
The EU Commission's ruling on nuclear sustainability criteria now carries direct market consequences. If Brussels accepts the ten-country bloc's framing, data center operators gain access to a dispatchable, zero-carbon source and nuclear project developers gain long-duration offtake credit to underpin financing.2 If the Commission rules against, hyperscalers face a thinner pool of contracted clean power during the years when European data center capacity grows fastest, adding load onto incumbent grid suppliers.
The near-term signal is whether any of the nuclear partnership announcements on either side of the Atlantic convert into signed offtake agreements with fixed pricing and delivery schedules. Oklo's Aurora design and the EU countries' push for regulatory recognition are both upstream of actual contracted megawatts.4,2 Until project pipelines appear behind the policy arguments, a 100 MW quarterly offshore wind total in Europe remains the more accurate measure of where clean power procurement actually stands.1