Jefferies Backs Cameco, NexGen and BWX as Nuclear Equity Demand Picks Up
Jefferies named Cameco, NexGen, and BWX as top nuclear picks on Monday (2026-09-07), covering contracted uranium supply, U.S. Navy defense revenue, and Athabasca Basin development risk.
Jefferies published a nuclear sector note on Monday (2026-09-07) naming Cameco, NexGen Energy, and BWX Technologies as its top picks for near-term opportunity, arriving as the URA uranium equity ETF rose 3.26% to $47.50 on Wednesday (2026-09-09). Across the three names, the bank is positioning for a combination of locked-in revenue, federal capital commitments, and defense contracts that are largely insulated from spot uranium price swings.4,5
Cameco anchors the selection. The Saskatchewan-based miner produced 19 million pounds of uranium at Cigar Lake and 15 million pounds at McArthur River last year, two of the highest-grade facilities operating anywhere in the world. It has contracted to deliver an average of 28 million pounds annually through 2030, a volume commitment that gives the company revenue visibility rare among commodity producers.4,3
The company also carries a 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric, which designs and services nuclear reactors globally, with Brookfield Renewable Partners holding the remaining 51%. That position connects Cameco directly to a $17.5 billion conditional loan commitment the U.S. Department of Energy confirmed on June 24 (2026-06-24) to finance up to 10 Westinghouse AP1000 reactors in the United States. Jefferies projects Cameco's earnings per share to rise 69% in 2027 and a further 26% in 2028, reflecting the earnings leverage embedded in those long-dated supply contracts.4,3
BWX Technologies enters the note on different grounds. The company is the sole commercial supplier of nuclear reactor components for the U.S. Navy, a position that generated $1.4 billion in naval propulsion contracts secured on May 7 (2026-05-07). Defense revenue of that scale provides an earnings base that uranium spot-price volatility cannot easily erode.4,5
But BWX shares were trading roughly 33% below their 52-week high of $241, reached on April 16 (2026-04-16), when the Jefferies note was published. The bank appears to view that discount as an entry point. Available reporting does not disclose a price target.4
NexGen Energy is the pre-production name in the trio. The company is advancing its Rook I project in Canada's Athabasca Basin but reported a quarterly loss in the second quarter of 2026. Regulatory approvals, project financing arrangements, and construction progress at Rook I are the milestones investors are tracking before the investment case moves from prospective to tangible. Until those are in hand, NexGen carries a distinctly different risk profile from the other two picks.5
The supply backdrop gives the Jefferies selections context that extends well beyond a single bank note. Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee projected a cumulative uranium supply deficit of 2.3 billion pounds between 2025 and 2045 in a separate research note. Goldman's nuclear demand model has also incorporated small modular reactors for the first time, forecasting nearly 46 GW of cumulative SMR deployments by 2045 — an addition that implies around 62 million pounds of incremental long-term uranium demand, or a 17% upside to Goldman's prior long-term demand estimate.2
Reactor licensing is moving at a pace not seen in decades. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved license renewals for St. Lucie Units 1 and 2, and cleared the 759 MW Robinson Unit 2 in South Carolina to operate until 2050 under accelerated federal timelines. In Canada, Bruce Power signed a memorandum of understanding with SaskPower on April 16 (2026-04-16) to share expertise on large-scale reactor development, signalling that provincial utilities are treating nuclear expansion as a practical near-term option rather than a long-range aspiration.1,2
Nuclear plants run at a capacity factor of around 92%, according to U.S. Department of Energy data — roughly 1.5 times that of natural gas and four times solar. That durability is what makes Cameco's long-term supply contracts commercially credible: counterparties are locking in fuel for facilities that will operate for decades.3
Still, the Jefferies thesis carries execution risk on multiple fronts. NexGen has yet to secure financing for Rook I, and any delay to AP1000 reactor construction timelines in the United States would reduce the near-term call on Cameco's Westinghouse stake. The next concrete signal will come from the DOE's progress in converting its June loan commitments into signed financing agreements, and from NexGen's next regulatory filing on Rook I permitting.4,5