Cameco Earnings Outlook Points to 13% EPS Growth in 2027 Despite 31% Stock Decline
With uranium deliveries locked in at 28 million pounds annually through 2030, analysts see Cameco revenue growing at an 8% CAGR through 2028.
The URA uranium equity ETF gained 0.59% to $46.06 on Monday (2026-09-07), a session move that coincides with analyst projections placing Cameco Corp's earnings per share on a path of 13% growth in 2027 and nearly 29% growth in 2028. Those forecasts, published in early August 2026 (2026-08-06), rest on a contracted delivery book and uranium prices that Citi analysts expect could reach $125 per pound in 2026.6,1
Cameco accounts for roughly 15% of global uranium output and ranks as the second-largest producer worldwide after Kazakhstan's state-controlled Kazatomprom. The company has secured commitments to deliver 28 million pounds of uranium annually through 2030, a contracted volume that removes a significant portion of revenue uncertainty. Consensus forecasts published in May 2026 (2026-05-21) project revenue growing at an 8% compound annual rate from 2025 to 2028, with adjusted EBITDA rising at a 12% annual rate over the same period.1,6
Uranium itself has done the heavy lifting so far. Physical uranium traded at roughly $30 per pound in 2022; Citi analysts expect spot prices to reach as high as $125 per pound in 2026, a near-quadrupling in four years driven by nuclear demand outstripping available supply. The IEA projects global nuclear generating capacity rising more than 50% from 2025 to 2050, as decarbonization targets and the power demands of AI and data center infrastructure pull utilities toward reliable baseload generation.1,5
Cameco is positioned along most of the nuclear fuel chain. The company mines and converts uranium, provides fuel manufacturing services, and holds a 49% equity stake in Westinghouse, which designs reactors and supplies engineering support and components to nuclear operators globally. That vertical reach differentiates Cameco from pure-play uranium miners and gives its earnings exposure to growth at multiple points in the fuel cycle.4,1
Since 2020, Cameco shares have gained more than 1,000%, according to Yahoo Finance data published in July 2026 (2026-07-29). Yet as of early August 2026 (2026-08-06), the stock sat 31% below its 52-week high, a gap that reflects investor uncertainty about the timeline for new reactor commissioning and whether utility procurement will accelerate quickly enough to keep spot uranium elevated. At an enterprise value of $61.5 billion, or 33 times the 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate, the valuation offers little room for earnings misses.5,6,1
Saskatchewan is adding material to the supply picture. Canada's Nuclear Safety Commission approved two new uranium mines in the province in late May 2026 (2026-05-28), the first new mine approvals in Canada since Cameco's own earlier projects were sanctioned. Analysts covering the region say geopolitical pressure to reduce reliance on Russian and Kazakh uranium is making the province increasingly attractive to utilities in Europe and Asia seeking to diversify procurement.2
But supply chain reconstruction is slower than the headline approvals suggest. Many advanced reactor designs, including small modular reactors, require high-assay low-enriched uranium that is not yet commercially available outside Russia. The United States has awarded funding to develop domestic HALEU capacity, though commercial-scale production remains years away — a constraint that limits near-term demand from next-generation reactor designs and introduces timing risk into projections that assume SMR deployment proceeds on schedule.3
Cameco's forward dividend yield is 0.2%, narrow against its scale, but a payout ratio of 16% leaves room for distribution growth if earnings track analyst targets. The more immediate variable for traders is utility procurement timing: if reactor builds slip or utilities delay long-term uranium purchases, the 2027 and 2028 EPS projections face downward pressure regardless of how compelling the long-run supply-demand case appears.1