Uranium ETF and European Gas Advance as West Races to Close Mineral Gap With China
IEA data show China refines 19 of 20 key minerals at an average 70% market share, while Western diversification plans remain years from meaningful output.
The uranium ETF URA added 3.26% to $47.50 on Wednesday (2026-09-09) as ICE Endex TTF front-month gas rose 3.41% to €75.83/MWh at Tuesday's close (2026-09-08), with THE M+1 tracking at €77.05/MWh. The moves came as investors weighed growing evidence that the infrastructure buildout driving energy demand (data centres, power grids, electric vehicles) is creating materials requirements that Western supply chains have not yet organised to meet.1
Global data-centre investment is on course to hit $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion being spent on oil supply in the same year, according to the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2025 published in May (2026-05-20). That scale of digital infrastructure maps directly onto electricity demand, which in turn maps onto the minerals required for generation, transmission and storage.1
China dominates refining for 19 of 20 key strategic minerals, averaging 70% of global market share, the IEA warned. It mines roughly 80% of the world's tungsten and refines 99% of its gallium, according to analysis published by The Economist in May (2026-05-19). Unlike crude oil, where dozens of producers distribute supply, refining for critical minerals is concentrated in ways that cannot be replicated quickly.1,2
Western governments have responded with money. Public financing commitments aimed at diversifying critical mineral supply chains more than quadrupled between 2023 and 2025, reaching approximately $65 billion, IEA data show. That is a substantial increase in capital commitment. Converting pledged capital to operating output typically takes a decade or more in mining.6
At the G7 summit in France on June 17 (2026-06-17), leaders agreed to coordinate stockpiling and launch a new IEA-linked platform to reduce dependence on Beijing for rare earths and minerals. The joint statement stopped short of binding production targets, eenews.net reported. Coordinated stockpiles buy time; they do not add supply.4
Commercial deals are moving faster than policy. REalloys signed a 15-year offtake agreement with Critical Metals Corp covering 15% of Phase 1 output from the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, described as one of the largest known rare earth deposits. A separate contract engaged SRC to design and commission a commercial-scale system for dysprosium and terbium production, two permanent magnet materials central to wind turbines and EV drivetrains. That system transfers to an Ohio facility once complete.3
Norway is also emerging as a potential European alternative. Energy Voice reported on July 30 (2026-07-30) that Norway had made a notable debut with two key energy transition elements, though project timelines and commercial scale were not detailed. For European buyers, Norwegian production would offer supply-chain proximity that African or Latin American projects cannot match.7
Grid investment has not kept pace with generation spending. Electricity generation investment surged nearly 70% since 2015, yet spending on power grids grew at less than half that rate, the IEA found. New capacity and the minerals embedded in it are being added faster than the network infrastructure designed to carry the output.1
Japan is navigating the same structural dependency from a different angle. Tokyo has pivoted toward U.S. petroleum imports to cut exposure to Middle Eastern supply disruptions, but Japan NRG analysis from June 2026 (2026-06-22) warned the shift risks trading one single-source dependency for another rather than building genuine resilience.5
Across gas markets, 300 billion cubic metres of new annual LNG capacity is expected to come online, according to the IEA. Asian LNG benchmark JKM was at $24.38/MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-09-09), holding broadly stable as buyers weigh incoming supply. ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $99.36/bbl on Wednesday (2026-09-09), with Middle East tensions keeping physical risk in focus.1
IEA member countries have released approximately 290 million barrels of oil since a collective emergency response announced on March 11, with government-controlled reserves remaining above one billion barrels, the agency said. The IEA has separately warned of growing risks to oil, gas and critical mineral supply chains as regional conflict in the Middle East intensifies.6
The number to track over coming months is the pace at which $65 billion in public financing converts into permitted, construction-ready projects. Pledged capital does not move markets; operating mines do. Until new Western refining capacity reaches nameplate output, China's share of 19 strategic minerals remains the operative constraint for anyone buying equipment, building generation, or positioning in the rare earth sector.