U.S. Diesel Prices Approach April War High as Refinery Deficit Persists
Global refinery runs are averaging nearly 6 million barrels per day below seasonal norms, keeping diesel near its war-period peak six months after Hormuz closed.
U.S. diesel prices were closing in on their April 2026 war-period highs in early September, with NYMEX heating oil front-month at $4.68 per gallon as of September 7 (2026-09-07). In reporting published on September 2 (2026-09-02), OilPrice.com cited Goldman Sachs commodity strategist Daan Struyven warning that global refinery runs are down 7 million barrels per day from last year and have averaged nearly 6 million barrels per day below seasonal norms since March 2026.7
Diesel is the industrial economy's fuel. Sustained pressure on prices feeds into transport, construction and food costs with unusual speed, and in import-dependent economies with thin foreign exchange reserves the shock transmits almost instantly. Parallel-market gasoline prices around Khartoum reportedly rose by almost 67% in a single week during April 2026, an illustration of how quickly a Hormuz-driven supply event reaches street level thousands of miles from the strait.
The disruption began on February 28 (2026-02-28), when military action in the Middle East triggered what the EIA described as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA's April 7 (2026-04-07) Short-Term Energy Outlook estimated that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 million barrels per day of crude oil production in March, with that figure assessed to rise to 9.1 million barrels per day in April.1,5
Separate OGJ analysis placed the April shut-in total at 10.5 million barrels per day, with a peak near 10.8 million barrels per day projected for May. The EIA's April forecast expected shut-ins to ease to 6.7 million barrels per day in May and production to return close to pre-conflict levels by late 2026, a timeline that subsequent events have put in doubt.2,1
Around two weeks after U.S. and Iranian forces resumed attacks in the Gulf region, ICE Brent crude front-month reached $100 per barrel on July 23 (2026-07-23), a nearly one-third increase from its June low, according to Tempo.co.6
Crude has since retreated. ICE Brent front-month was at $96.28 per barrel as of September 7 (2026-09-07), down 1.06% on the day. Product markets have not followed it lower. OilPrice.com reported in July (2026-07-13) that refinery runs averaged just 3.91 million barrels per day, more than 1.4 million barrels per day below the same period in 2025, holding crack spreads wide and pushing refiner margins to levels described as extraordinary.4,7
Middle Eastern crude exports did partially recover, jumping to more than 12 million barrels per day in June from less than 8 million barrels per day in May, Kpler data show. But the June 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook still assumed the strait remained effectively closed in the near term, with oil shipments only expected to resume in the third quarter.4,3
Route alternatives are constrained on both sides. Before Houthi attacks escalated Red Sea risk, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could export around 6.8 million barrels per day through that corridor, roughly half of normal Hormuz volumes, according to Rystad Energy senior vice president Jorge Leon. Around 2.5 million barrels of Saudi oil per day were moving through Bab el-Mandeb before hostilities intensified there. With both the strait and the Red Sea partially or fully closed, suppliers have had few options for bypassing the disruption.6
U.S. exporters filled part of the gap. Kpler data show U.S. crude exports reached 5.15 million barrels per day in April (2026-04), up 1.22 million barrels per day from March, as Asian and European buyers sought supply outside the conflict zone. OGJ projected U.S. crude output at 13.65 million barrels per day for 2026, up 0.5% from 2025, with WTI becoming more central to international price benchmarking as buyers diversified away from Gulf barrels.2
RBOB gasoline front-month was at $3.23 per gallon as of September 7 (2026-09-07). Both products are being held aloft less by crude supply than by the sustained shortfall in refinery throughput. Whether the EIA's late-2026 production recovery survives the renewed Gulf hostilities that pushed Brent back toward $100 in July, and whether refinery runs rebuild before winter demand arrives, are the variables that will shape how much further diesel prices move from here.7,3