Hormuz Vessel Collapse and U.S. Crude Draw Push NYMEX Heating Oil to $4.55 a Gallon
Strait of Hormuz traffic fell to four ships as U.S.-Iran hostilities widened, driving crude and distillates to their sharpest weekly gains since mid-July.
NYMEX heating oil front-month stood at $4.55 a gallon as of Sunday September 6, capping a week in which escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude and distillates to their sharpest gains since mid-July. ICE Brent front-month edged toward $96 a barrel by Friday September 4, while NYMEX WTI October 2026 posted a weekly advance of more than 10%, CNBCTV18 reported.2,5
Vessel traffic data told a blunter story than any diplomatic statement. Around 17 million barrels moved through the Hormuz corridor on Monday August 31, oilprice.com reported, but vessel traffic collapsed to just four ships later in the week, blockonomi.com reported. Shipowners pulling away from the waterway cut available cargo supply faster than any headline could.3,4
Military confrontations drove the withdrawal. Kuwait's armed forces said they were responding to Iranian missile strikes. Engagements also affected Bahrain and Jordan, blockonomi.com reported. ICE Brent front-month was near $87 a barrel at the start of the week on August 27 before climbing to $95.15 by Friday September 4 morning, a 6.6% weekly gain, blockonomi.com reported. NYMEX WTI October 2026 reached $91.80 on Thursday night September 3, up $8.36 or 10.02% for the week to that point, oilprice.com reported.4,3,5
The week did not move in one direction. Oil prices fell early as Iran-Oman diplomatic talks suggested some easing of supply concerns. President Donald Trump said Tuesday September 1 that 10 million barrels of oil had transited the strait that day, a figure that initially capped the price rally. WTI's intraweek low was $84.11, reached before the Kuwaiti and Bahraini engagements broadened the conflict, oilprice.com reported.3,5
Storage data sharpened the distillate case. EIA figures released during the week showed U.S. commercial crude stockpiles fell to 424.5 million barrels for the period ending August 28, down from 428.9 million barrels the week before, a draw of 4.4 million barrels, blockonomi.com reported. A shrinking crude buffer alongside disrupted Hormuz flows narrows the feedstock cushion available to U.S. refiners.4
ULSD has outpaced crude's own gains in 2026. CNBCTV18 reported that ICE Brent front-month has risen almost 60% for the year, with refined products including diesel posting even steeper percentage advances. Both feedstock cost repricing and tighter product inventories account for the gap.2
Brent's recovery from near $72.25 at the start of July, when beincrypto.com reported the market had erased 40% from a March peak near $120, back to the mid-$90s took roughly two months. Heating oil longs rebuilt on the crude rally, not on any independent demand catalyst — which leaves the position exposed if Hormuz throughput recovers faster than the vessel count currently suggests.1
Trump's claim on Tuesday September 1 that 10 million barrels cleared the strait in a single day sits alongside blockonomi.com's four-ship vessel count from later in the week. If EIA data due in the week of September 8 show another sizeable crude draw, the feedstock squeeze on U.S. refiners will reinforce product price support. But if the Iran-Oman diplomatic track produces a verified throughput recovery, heating oil at $4.55 a gallon carries a position built substantially on corridor-flow uncertainty.3,4,5