Venezuela OPEC Exit Judged Structurally Likely as U.S. Oil Deal Reshapes Cartel Calculus
Analyst Ashford says leaving OPEC frees Venezuela's output from quota ceilings, with a landmark U.S. deal shifting the balance sharply toward departure.
Rigzone on Monday (2026-09-07) published analysis calling Venezuela's exit from OPEC "structurally likely," the strongest language applied to a question that has been building in private discussions for months. The judgment, from analyst Ashford, arrived one day after OPEC+ voted to freeze output for October, ending six consecutive months of production increases. That decision also came as the United States moved to cement majority control over approximately 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves.6,5
The production freeze was agreed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, the core OPEC+ grouping. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $97.05 per barrel on Monday (2026-09-07), elevated by the Strait of Hormuz chokehold that followed U.S.-Iran airstrikes during the week of August 24 (2026-08-24); the strait handles roughly 20% of global oil supply. Oil touched $96 per barrel on Friday (2026-09-04) as those tensions sharpened.5
The U.S.-Venezuela arrangement is structured around a 100-year lease awarded to a new private company jointly owned by U.S. interests and North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), controlled by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt. It covers 17 oil fields. The U.S. Defence Department's Office of Strategic Capital would hold a 35% stake, with the U.S. side controlling 55% of output from the venture.4
Venezuela pumped 1.16 million barrels a day in July, according to a Bloomberg survey — less than a third of the 3.5 million barrels per day it produced at its 1998 peak. Sanctions, political instability and chronic underinvestment through the Maduro years drove that collapse. The deal's premise is that U.S. capital and operational oversight can reverse the decline across those 17 fields.3,2,4
Ashford's analysis laid out the core trade-off: leaving OPEC removes the quota ceiling that nominally caps Venezuelan output, clearing the way for U.S. and international companies to pump without cartel restrictions. Staying preserves a seat in a body whose power over physical supply has shrunk considerably. The balance between those two positions is what Venezuela's government is now weighing.6
Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said "OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market." That view gained traction when the UAE's departure from OPEC earlier this year barely moved prices, indicating how far the market had already discounted the cartel's capacity to enforce discipline. Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University who served on the UAE's Financial Advisory Council, told Fortune the U.S.-Iran conflict gave the UAE one job: "Take the money and run."5,1
Venezuela is a founding member, having helped build OPEC more than 60 years ago. But founding-member status does not change a barrel count of 1.16 million barrels per day. People familiar with the matter, speaking anonymously, said conversations with U.S. officials have focused specifically on the operating freedom an OPEC exit would grant international companies on Venezuelan acreage.3
The OPEC+ freeze agreed on Sunday (2026-09-06) holds collective output steady for now. It does not resolve whether Venezuela, weighing production freedom against institutional influence, will still be inside the tent when the following month's output decision comes up for review.5,6
The concrete development to track is whether Caracas issues a formal exit notice and at what pace U.S. capital begins moving against the 17-field lease. Venezuela's July output of 1.16 million barrels per day is the baseline from which that count could recover sharply or stagnate further under continued OPEC quota constraints.3,4