Venezuela's Oil Output Climbs to 1.2 Million Bpd, Sharpening OPEC Exit Calculus
Kpler data showing Venezuelan production nearly doubled since January adds commercial weight to exit talks that have no confirmed outcome.
A Kpler analysis published Monday (2026-09-07) shows Venezuela's crude output has risen from around 700,000 barrels per day in January to approximately 1.2 million bpd — a near-doubling that is giving fresh impetus to internal debate about whether Caracas should leave OPEC, months after the UAE became the first member to withdraw in decades.7
Venezuela currently operates under an OPEC quota exemption, meaning its membership imposes no binding constraint on output. Kpler estimates production will reach only about 1.4 million bpd by late 2027, keeping the country comfortably within that exemption for another two to three years. But the gap between current output and any future quota threshold is smaller than it was at the start of the year, and it narrows further with every incremental barrel.7
Bloomberg reported Friday (2026-08-28) that Venezuelan officials had discussed a potential OPEC exit with US counterparts, though sources familiar with the matter said no final decision had been reached. US negotiators are separately discussing acquisition of a stake in Venezuelan oil production, according to people familiar with those private talks who asked not to be identified.5,4,3
Venezuela pumped 1.16 million barrels per day in July, a Bloomberg survey showed — less than half the amount it produced a decade earlier and roughly a third of its 1998 peak of 3.5 million bpd, according to briefs.co. The country holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, giving it considerable potential to ramp output sharply if capital and infrastructure barriers are removed. Sanctions, chronic underinvestment and infrastructure decay have kept actual production far below that potential for years.6,2,5
The UAE withdrew from OPEC in April, following weeks of internal friction over production allocations. Venezuela is one of the cartel's founding members, having helped create OPEC more than 64 years ago. A second departure so soon after the UAE's would deepen doubts about the cartel's ability to hold its membership together.1,2,3
Kpler calculates that a Venezuelan exit, combined with the already-completed UAE departure, would remove roughly 6 million barrels per day of production capacity from the group — equivalent to about 20% of OPEC's total. That volume outside the quota system would leave the remaining membership with substantially reduced influence over global supply.7
For now, the commercial logic for leaving is thin. The quota exemption means Caracas is not constrained by membership. An exit carries more political symbolism than financial benefit at current output levels. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $97.25 per barrel as of 13:10 UTC on Monday (2026-09-07).7
That changes if US investment drives output significantly above Kpler's 1.4 million bpd forecast, at which point the exemption erodes and membership begins to carry a real cost in barrels. Sources familiar with the discussions say conversations with US officials are continuing but no final decision has been made.7,5
The monthly production figure is what traders should watch. Should the recovery accelerate beyond the 1.4 million bpd baseline — driven by US capital, equipment access or technical support — the two-to-three-year exemption buffer Kpler currently models could compress well before the diplomatic timeline resolves. Once it does, staying inside OPEC carries a cost Caracas has not yet had to weigh.7