Citi Sees Uranium Above $100 Per Pound as Nuclear Buildout Tightens Fuel Supply
Citi analysts forecast uranium surpassing $100 per pound within three months, as reactor approvals, DOE financing and utility contracting point toward sustained supply pressure.
Citi analysts forecast uranium prices will break above $100 per pound within three months, citing tighter fuel requirements and accelerating nuclear power investment in the United States. The Global Uranium and Nuclear Equipment ETF (URA) gained 0.59% to $46.06 on Monday (2026-09-07), a muted move for a sector where physical prices have broadly outrun equity performance in 2026.8,7
Spot uranium traded at $88.85 per pound on August 21 (2026-08-21), up 3.62% month-on-month and nearly 20% above year-earlier levels, according to market data. Bloomberg's continuous front-month uranium futures contract briefly surged above $100 per pound in late January (2026-01) before retreating. Citi's three-month forecast is that the next breach holds.8,7
The physical market has already separated from equities. Long-term uranium prices hit $94 per pound at the end of June (2026-06-30), their highest in 18 years, while spot gained 4.3% in H1 2026, according to Sprott Asset Management. Uranium mining equities fell 3.9% over the same period. Junior miners lost 7.4%. In June (2026-06) alone, the two equity indexes dropped 14.4% and 17.5%, respectively.5
Sprott called the gap a buying opportunity. "A rising long-term price shows that the market remains tight, even if equity markets don't reflect it," Jacob White, ETF product manager at Sprott Asset Management, wrote in a note. Sprott's Physical Uranium Trust holds 81.4 million pounds of uranium oxide with a net asset value of approximately $7.1 billion.5
Utility contracting behavior points in the same direction. Cameco President Grant Isaac said on a podcast in June (2026-06) that many utilities negotiating long-term fuel agreements are already modeling uranium near $120 per pound, building that expectation into pricing floors and ceilings. The midpoint of some contracts sits close to $120 per pound, he said.4
Policy is extending the demand horizon. The U.S. Department of Energy announced $17.5 billion in conditional loans in June (2026-06) to fund long-lead items for as many as 10 new reactors — a commitment that anchors visible procurement timelines for fuel suppliers. Duke Energy's 759 MW Robinson Unit 2 in South Carolina also received approval to operate until 2050 under accelerated federal timelines, adding to the roster of committed long-lived offtakers.5,2
Goldman Sachs incorporated small modular reactors into its uranium supply-and-demand model in May (2026-05), adding roughly 46 GW of cumulative SMR deployments by 2045. Analyst Brian Lee estimated the addition lifts Goldman's 2045 nuclear generation forecast by 6% and creates an incremental 62 million pounds of uranium demand, a 17% upside to the bank's prior long-term estimate.2,3
Goldman's model shows a cumulative supply deficit of 2.3 billion pounds between 2025 and 2045 as new reactor builds outpace mining expansion. Cameco shares have risen more than 1,000% since 2020. Uranium spot traded near $30 per pound in 2022.2,6
Centrus Energy (NYSE:LEU) fell 5.4% on May 20 (2026-05-20) as spot prices slipped, compounding a pullback from January 2026 (2026-01) highs. The enrichment company's first-quarter 2026 net income declined 63.2% year-over-year to $10 million, and its shares sat 60.6% below the October 2025 high of $436. Centrus has recorded 88 daily moves greater than 5% in the past 12 months, which reflects how poorly the equity tracks physical market conditions.1
Whether utilities accelerate term contracting before the end of 2026 could pull Citi's target into range faster than spot curves currently imply. Prices approaching $100 per pound would compress the window for buyers still holding legacy agreements. Goldman's deficit projections assume mine development proceeds broadly on schedule. Uranium mining's track record on that count is uneven.2,8