ERCOT Load Holds Near Record Highs as Texas Summer Heat Persists Into Late August
EIA data show two consecutive near-record weeks of Texas demand, with natural gas covering nearly half of peak-hour generation and NYMEX gas futures rising in response.
ERCOT's weekly average load for the week ending August 29 (2026-08-29) came in at 73.7 GW, just below the record set for the prior week, the EIA reported Thursday (2026-09-03). Sustained high temperatures across Texas have driven demand to levels the grid has not previously seen across multiple consecutive weeks.6
The week ending August 22 (2026-08-22) was itself 10% above the highest weekly average recorded in any week of summer 2025, and 6% above the previous weekly record, per EIA hourly data. Two consecutive weeks near record levels points to elevated around-the-clock load from cooling demand, not just afternoon peaks but sustained overnight draws that keep average hourly output elevated across the full seven-day window.6
The season's hourly peak came on July 22 (2026-07-22) at 6:00 p.m. CT: 91.089 GW, a new all-time ERCOT record. That was 6% above the previous peak of 85.508 GW, set on August 10, 2023, which had itself replaced the prior record of 80.148 GW from July 20, 2022, per ERCOT data cited by Rigzone. Three peak-demand records in four years.3,2
Natural gas covered 48% of generation at the July 22 peak; solar contributed 32%, per EIA reporting. The 6 p.m. CT timing is significant: solar output falls sharply through that hour, shifting the generation burden onto gas-fired capacity and setting the ERCOT real-time settlement price accordingly. When demand peaks in the evening, gas is the price-setter.2
The gas market reacted to heat forecast extensions. On Wednesday (2026-08-19), NYMEX natural gas futures surged after updated models projected prolonged heat across the South and West through early September. Contracts broke through resistance at $2.790 and closed that session at $2.837/MMBtu, up $0.061, the first trend change to bullish in several weeks, according to FX Empire. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month last settled at $2.98/MMBtu on Friday (2026-09-04), with markets closed for the weekend.5
NERC's Summer Reliability Assessment, published June 3 (2026-06-03), noted bulk power system resources grew by over 58.5 GW compared with the prior year. Solar PV additions of 30.5 GW nameplate capacity contributed an estimated 16.4 GW at peak demand, while more than 16 GW of nameplate battery storage has been added across the NERC footprint, with NERC crediting battery resources with helping maintain grid frequency stability. Sixteen of NERC's 23 assessment areas reported increased available capacity. But battery storage and solar face their stiffest test after 6 p.m., when solar generation declines and batteries may already be partially depleted from the afternoon ramp, leaving the grid to fall back on gas and whatever dispatchable capacity remains.1,2
Demand growth projections add pressure to that picture. Ascend Analytics, in a report cited by Utility Dive on August 12 (2026-08-12), projected ERCOT peak demand could reach 120 GW by 2030 — more than 30% above the current all-time hourly peak — though that estimate falls below ERCOT's own forecasts. NERC separately flagged large computational loads and unexpected generator disconnections as operational risks for the coming seasons.4,1
How far Texas heat extends into September shapes both demand and gas pricing through the shoulder season. With NYMEX Henry Hub front-month settling at $2.98/MMBtu on Friday (2026-09-04), gas is already priced for elevated power-sector demand. Any extension of heat into mid-September before autumn temperatures bring genuine load relief would push ERCOT to draw down dispatchable reserves against a weekly load floor that has sat near record territory for at least two consecutive weeks. The record set on July 22 (2026-07-22) at 91.089 GW remains the benchmark: another evening spike of comparable scale would test gas generation capacity and battery discharge capability in the same post-sunset window.6,5,3