ERCOT Summer Peak Breaches 91 GW as Gas Powers Nearly Half the Load
Texas's July demand surge kept natural gas central to grid reliability, with EIA projecting U.S. power sector gas consumption to set a new record in 2027.
ERCOT's hourly peak load reached 91.089 GW on July 22 (2026-07-22) at 6:00 p.m. local time, topping the previous record of 85.508 GW set on August 10, 2023 (2023-08-10) by 6%, according to EIA data published on August 3 (2026-08-03). Natural gas supplied 48% of generation at that moment; solar provided 32%.7,8
Three years before that, Texas peaked at 80.148 GW on July 20, 2022 (2022-07-20). The grid has absorbed roughly 11 GW of additional peak demand since then, with solar capacity growing substantially. Yet gas's share of generation at the top of the stack has not shrunk. It has remained the dominant dispatchable resource at the hours when demand is hardest to serve.8,7
Texas was not alone. Southwest Power Pool set its own record of 57.9 GW on July 27 (2026-07-27) at 5:00 p.m., EIA data showed. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gained 0.34% to $2.94 per MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-09-02), a subdued print that reflects adequate supply rather than any moderation in the broader demand trend.7
The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook projected natural gas consumption by the U.S. electric power sector to remain near recent highs this summer before setting a fresh record in 2027. Total U.S. electricity demand is forecast to climb from a record 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,399 billion kWh in 2027, according to EIA. That is a 5% rise in two years. If it materializes, it would be the fastest two-year expansion since before the shale era flattened the load growth curve.3,6
The AI buildout sits behind much of this trajectory. EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2026 estimated that data center servers accounted for 7% of U.S. commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025, with that share rising to 22-33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050. Server consumption alone could reach between 446 and 818 billion kWh annually by mid-century across EIA's scenarios, a range that reflects genuine uncertainty about the pace of deployment.1
Supply has kept up so far. U.S. marketed natural gas production averaged 120.2 Bcf/d in Q1 2026, up 4% from Q1 2025, with EIA expecting output to keep rising through 2027 as associated gas from oil production grows. But LNG exports reached 15 Bcf/d in 2025, up from just 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016, absorbing a larger share of that production and narrowing the domestic buffer.2,5
Capital is moving into generation regardless of spot price levels. IEA data, reported by the Financial Times, showed U.S. companies placed orders for around 20 GW of gas turbine capacity in Q1 2026 alone, part of an estimated $50 billion in planned coal and gas power spending this year — the first surge of that scale in more than a decade. Turbines ordered now will not reach commercial operation before 2027 at the earliest.4
Solar's role in ERCOT is growing. EIA forecast ERCOT solar output to reach 78 billion kWh in 2026, against 60 billion kWh for coal. The 32% solar share at the July 22 (2026-07-22) peak shows how much that resource has scaled in Texas. But solar generation falls as evening load peaks, which is why gas retained a 48% share at precisely the moment the record was set. The 6:00 p.m. timing was not incidental.1,7
At the macro level, natural gas accounted for 36% of U.S. primary energy consumption in 2025, one percentage point behind petroleum's 37%, according to EIA data cited by Bloomberg. LNG export growth, rising power sector demand, and sustained production are narrowing that gap. Still, the margin is thin, and any sustained weakening in industrial or export demand could push the crossover further out.5
EIA noted in its August 3 (2026-08-03) brief that the July 22 (2026-07-22) ERCOT peak could be exceeded if Texas faces another heat wave before the cooling season ends. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month at $2.94 per MMBtu is pricing a market that has managed summer demand without strain. The harder test comes in 2027, when EIA expects power sector gas burn to reach record levels, amid rising LNG export commitments and a turbine order book that won't fully deliver for another year or more.7,3,2