Kuwait and Qatar Restore Hormuz Oil Flows to 70% of Pre-War Levels
A surge in Kuwaiti and Qatari crude shipments has pushed total Hormuz throughput toward 10 million barrels a day, easing but not eliminating the war-driven supply shock.
Total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz reached close to 10 million barrels a day on a seven-day average basis as of Monday (2026-08-24), according to Vortexa — a sign that Kuwait and Qatar have made meaningful progress in restoring exports disrupted since the Iran war began.6
Both countries had collectively shipped around 2 million barrels a day through Hormuz before the conflict. Traders, speaking anonymously, said they have now recovered roughly 70% of those pre-war volumes. The recovery has come through a combination of shuttle services and what traders described as dark activity — opaque ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman that keep tankers away from the most exposed sections of the strait.6,7
Bloomberg's trading sources put the overall Hormuz figure in a slightly wider range — 7 to 8 million barrels a day as of late August (2026-08-27), up from roughly 4 million barrels a day in mid-July. The discrepancy between Vortexa's near-10 million figure and Bloomberg's lower range likely reflects differing vessel-tracking methodologies and the inherent difficulty in measuring shadow fleet activity.6,7
Before the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz handled around 21 million barrels a day, making it the world's single most important oil transit chokepoint, according to EIA data from 2022. Even at 10 million barrels a day, total flows remain sharply below pre-war norms. Sustained disruption at that scale would, in an undisturbed market, be expected to push prices far higher than current levels.1,6
ICE Brent crude front-month closed Friday's session (2026-09-05) at $94.97 a barrel. That compares with a brief spike below $90 triggered in late July when the US and Iran temporarily paused strikes — a move that briefly wiped more than 7% off the front-month in Asian trading on Monday (2026-07-27), according to CNBCTV18. Brent had risen more than 20% through that July period as the conflict spilled from Hormuz into the Red Sea. Goldman Sachs warned at the time that prices could climb above $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter if Hormuz disruptions continued, though analysts flagged the forecast as a tail scenario.5,4
Kuwait's re-entry into Asian markets added a layer of commercial normalcy absent since the war began. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation offered at least 4 million barrels of its main export grade — loaded on two very large crude carriers — directly to refiners in China and South Korea on or around June 9 (2026-06-09). Traders noted that KPC was selling directly rather than through intermediaries, contrasting with earlier flows that had relied on third-party trading houses.2,3
Qatar's crude has moved largely on commercial tanker fleet vessels, traders said. Its success in getting cargoes through has allowed it to offer barrels on the spot market, increasing competitive pressure on alternative grades that had temporarily filled the void left by Hormuz disruptions.6
The UAE moved first among Gulf producers to restore Hormuz flows, and both Kuwait and Qatar followed its template. Iraq, whose export options are more constrained, has a northern pipeline route through Kurdistan to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan — Baghdad is reportedly planning to triple that route's capacity to around 770,000 barrels a day within three months.3
Analyst consensus in the source data skews bearish on ICE Brent front-month, weighted toward further softening as supply volumes continue to recover. But contrarian signals point the other way: bullish positioning on Brent and Dubai crude front-month reflects demand-side factors and the possibility that the current recovery in Hormuz flows stalls or reverses. Goldman Sachs analysts said the risk to their price outlook remains "tilted to the upside" given continued shipping disruptions and the chance of further escalation.4,6
The unresolved question for traders watching the crude complex is durability. Dark fleet transfers and shuttle operations are operationally intensive and politically exposed. Any renewed flare-up in the conflict — or a tightening of US enforcement on shadow shipping — could put the recovery in Hormuz throughput into reverse quickly. Dubai crude front-month closed the week at $98.72 a barrel, sitting above Brent, a spread that reflects the premium Asian buyers are still willing to pay for supply security in a market where the route reliability of Hormuz cargoes remains anything but settled.6,7,4