ABN Amro Warns Prolonged Hormuz Closure Could Push European Gas to EUR 80/MWh as TTF Posts Fourth Straight Weekly Gain
With European storage running below seasonal norms, ABN Amro sees another 10% upside for TTF in Q4 if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, keeping German baseload elevated.
ICE Endex TTF front-month was broadly flat in Amsterdam on Friday (2026-09-04), but was on track for a 7% gain across the week of 2026-08-31, its fourth consecutive weekly advance, as renewed Middle East tensions undercut any near-term expectation of restored LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.8
ABN Amro put a number on the risk the previous day. A prolonged closure of the strait could lift Europe's benchmark gas price to EUR 80/MWh in Q4, the Dutch bank said on Thursday (2026-09-03), equivalent to roughly another 10% above current levels of around €71.95/MWh.7
The Strait has locked in around 20% of global LNG supply since the US-Iran war broke out in late February, according to Montel. That supply shock has underpinned six months of price pressure on European markets.7 The initial surge drove Asian and European gas prices to their highest since the 2022/23 gas crisis in March, with JKM price volatility hitting 300% that month, its third highest monthly average on record, Global LNG Hub data showed. JKM was quoted at $24.09/MMBtu on Friday (2026-09-04), reflecting sustained competition from buyers unable to access Hormuz-routed cargoes.1
For German power, the gas market channel runs direct. German baseload front-month was priced at €149.68 per megawatt-hour at 20:05 UTC on Friday (2026-09-04), with the Q+1 contract at €157.97/MWh and the Cal+1 at €120.92/MWh. Gas-fired generation sets the marginal price for much of the German system, meaning sustained TTF levels flow quickly into wholesale power costs for industrial buyers and utilities across the region.
Storage leaves little cushion. ING estimates European LNG imports have run more than 7% below year-ago volumes, with continental storage around 43% full against the five-year average, and limited incentive to inject given the forward curve's shape.2 In mid-July (2026-07-13), separate data showed storage at around 47% full, already below the 56% recorded at the equivalent point in 2025.4
Speculative positioning has been building alongside physical tightness. Investment funds boosted net-long positions in European gas futures by 36% in the week ending July 17, 2026, the sharpest single-week increase since the conflict began earlier in the year.5 That concentration of length amplifies upside momentum but also sharpens the risk of rapid reversals when sentiment shifts.
It has before. When a peace deal appeared in mid-June, ICE Endex TTF front-month dropped 10% in a single session on Monday (2026-06-15), falling to EUR 42.27/MWh, Montel reported.3 Even then, analysts told Montel that prices were unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels quickly, given residual uncertainty over shipping normalization and the scale of European storage restocking still required. Those losses have since reversed entirely, with TTF now trading more than 70% above that June trough.
Peace has not materialized. TTF climbed from around €59.18/MWh, where Dutch front-month gas was trading after early-August (2026-08-06) profit-taking, to €71.95/MWh, a gain of roughly 21% in less than a month.6
ABN Amro's EUR 80/MWh Q4 scenario assumes prolonged but not total Hormuz closure. Any diplomatic breakthrough before peak demand season arrives, or any fresh round of profit-taking in a market carrying concentrated long positions, could push prices sharply in either direction. European storage trajectories through September will tell traders whether the continent can narrow the restocking gap before winter demand takes hold.