Shanghai gas exchange logs second flat session as JKM steadies and TTF climbs
Chinese buyers hold back from Shanghai LNG spot trading as a 3.14% rise in European TTF widens the Atlantic-Pacific price gap.
The Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange reported no trades in its physical LNG window on 2026-09-02, a second consecutive day without activity, as Asian spot JKM held flat at $23.61 per MMBtu. ICE Endex TTF front-month rose 3.14% to €71.96 per MWh in the same session, pulling European gas prices further above Pacific benchmarks.2
Back-to-back quiet sessions while TTF widens its lead over JKM draw attention to Chinese buyer intent. When European hub prices outpace Asian spot by enough to attract Atlantic-capable LNG cargoes westward, Pacific buyers risk tighter supply if they wait to commit. PetroChina's quarterly filing, published 2026-07-01, showed the company's top ten shareholders had not participated in securities lending through the refinancing window during the reporting period, reflecting limited speculative engagement around exchange-traded energy at the state-linked majors.2
Crude prices have shifted the cost basis for term LNG contracts since mid-year. PetroChina's report put the average North Sea Brent futures price at $78.38 per barrel in the first half of 2026, up 4.5% from $74.98 per barrel in the same period of 2025; WTI averaged $72.67 per barrel, up 1.8% from $71.42 a year earlier.2 Sinopec's interim filing with the HKEX, dated 2026-08-24, covers the same reporting period for the state refiner.3 ICE Brent front-month stood at $95.79 per barrel on 2026-09-02, about $17 above PetroChina's first-half Brent average and above the crude levels at which most term LNG pricing was anchored entering the year.2
Higher oil-indexed contract costs narrow the economic case for spot purchases. Chinese buyers with adequate storage and term coverage see little urgency to pursue exchange volumes at current JKM levels. The Shanghai exchange's sustained low activity reflects that position.2
Santos, the Australian LNG producer, illustrates where supplier expectations stand. The company's shares fell 3.3% on Thursday (2026-05-07), dropping from around 7.89 AUD to 7.63 AUD according to market data from stockinvest.us.1 The move occurred without specific production news, suggesting the sell-off tracked broader commodity sentiment rather than any Santos-specific development.
Simply Wall St and similar analyst platforms project Santos will grow earnings at roughly 13.4% annually and revenue at about 6.6% per year, with return on equity forecast near 9.5% within three years.1 Those figures assume contracted offtakers continue lifting volumes, making regional buyer behavior over the next two quarters directly relevant to the company's earnings trajectory.
JKM's unchanged session on 2026-09-02 is not straightforwardly bearish. But sellers have not been forced to discount; equilibrium at $23.61 per MMBtu suggests both sides are holding positions rather than forcing transactions. The absence of spot tenders from Chinese majors in recent sessions reads as price discipline rather than demand collapse.2
TTF's 3.14% gain on 2026-09-02 while JKM held flat is the spread to track over coming sessions. If it holds, flexible LNG cargoes face stronger pull toward the Atlantic basin precisely as Chinese utilities approach October's winter-stocking window. Santos's contracted supply schedule provides some production continuity for Asian buyers, but spot volumes on the Shanghai exchange will need to pick up if Pacific buyers want to avoid competing for flexible cargoes at higher prices as the fourth quarter draws closer.1