BMI Keeps End-September Hormuz Deal in Base Case as Brent Holds $95
Fitch Solutions' research arm still expects a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement within weeks, though five prior deal attempts have all collapsed.
Analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, sent Rigzone a report on Friday (2026-09-04) maintaining their base case that a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will be in place before September 30 (2026-09-30). ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $95.49 per barrel on Friday (2026-09-04), more than $15 below the May peak but well above the roughly $70 per barrel that Fitch Ratings had projected for a post-deal September.5
The gap points to limited market conviction in an imminent deal. Fitch Ratings projected in June (2026-06) that Brent would average $100 to $110 per barrel through May to July, then fall to $80 per barrel in August and to around $70 per barrel from September, expecting oversupply conditions to return as Middle East production recovered. September is here; the waterway is not open.3
Iran effectively halted nearly all non-Iranian shipping into and out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz when the conflict began in late February 2026, cutting off a route that had carried around 20% of daily global oil and LNG flows.2
Prices spiked hard. ICE Brent futures topped $111 per barrel in Asian trading on Tuesday (2026-05-12), rising 2.61% into early European hours as the closure stretched past eight weeks and U.S.-Iran talks were described by analysts as nowhere near resumption.1
The curve has since compressed. Morgan Stanley cut its Brent price outlook for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027 on June 30 (2026-06-30), citing signs that some Hormuz flows had begun recovering. Before the conflict, the bank's supply-demand balances had pointed to a 2 million to 3 million barrel per day surplus for the year; the Hormuz closure flipped that into a deficit, and partial recovery was enough to pull its forecasts lower.4
The U.S. Energy Information Administration offered a more cautious read. Its Short-Term Energy Outlook published in the week of August 10 (2026-08-10) projected that around 600,000 barrels per day of Middle East production would remain offline through the end of 2027, a baseline that puts a floor under supply disruption regardless of any diplomatic progress before month-end.6
BMI's Friday (2026-09-04) report is the second in a month to hold the end-of-quarter timeline. An earlier report from the same team on Monday (2026-08-03) also concluded that a broader U.S.-Iran diplomatic understanding remained achievable within Q3. Brent's most actively traded contracts ranged between $79.5 and $100.7 per barrel and Dated Brent between $85.3 and $105.6 per barrel at market close from July 20 (2026-07-20) through August, price bands that reflect how much the market has struggled to settle on a single view of resolution timing.5,7
Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, cautioned that any deal could still collapse at the 11th hour, as five previous attempts already had. The historical record makes that a reasonable default.2
With ICE Brent front-month at $95.49 on Friday (2026-09-04), the market is pricing something between a prolonged standoff and a clean reopening, far above the $70 Fitch projected for a resolved September but more than $15 below the May ceiling. The EIA's estimate of 600,000 barrels per day offline through 2027 suggests even a successful deal this month would leave residual supply disruption. A verifiable U.S.-Iran commitment on shipping access before September 30 (2026-09-30), not another round of preliminary contacts, is what BMI's base case now requires.3,6