LNG Equipment Makers Eye a $56 Billion Decade Cycle as Asian Import Appetite Weakens
A forecast doubling of the LNG liquefaction equipment market by 2035 collides with the lowest Asian import volumes since 2021.
ICE Endex TTF front-month rose 3.14% on Wednesday (2026-09-02) to €71.96 per megawatt-hour, lifting European gas prices to levels that historically test buyer appetite. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, was flat at $23.61 per million British thermal units in the same session. That split is the short-term backdrop against which equipment manufacturers are pitching a decade-long investment cycle that Future Market Insights forecasts will nearly double the global LNG liquefaction equipment market, from $25.4 billion in 2025 to $55.9 billion by 2035.2
The 8.2% compound annual growth rate projected in the FMI analysis, published on May 29 (2026-05-29), reflects continued investment in export terminal capacity and energy security infrastructure. Plant manufacturers are expected to account for 58.4% of market revenue in 2025. Refrigerant compressor systems account for an additional 37.2% of total equipment revenue, driven by the cooling and compression intensity of utility-scale liquefaction facilities.2,1
The volume argument draws on a record trade year. Global LNG trade reached 436.98 million tonnes in 2025, up 6.3% from 2024, according to an International Gas Union report cited by TASS on July 7 (2026-07-07). The United States drove the majority of that growth, adding 22.3 million tonnes year on year to total 110.74 million tonnes. Qatar followed at 81.51 million tonnes and Australia at 80.32 million tonnes. Russia, in fourth place, cut shipments by nearly 3 million tonnes to 30.52 million tonnes.3
U.S. dominance reshapes who buys the equipment. China leads the country-level growth projections with an 11.1% CAGR through 2035, according to FMI. India follows at 10.3%, Germany at 9.4%, and Brazil at 8.6%. The U.S. itself registers a projected 7.8% — a lower rate that reflects an already-large installed base rather than any weakness in domestic demand.1,2
But near-term demand signals are pulling against that long-term bullish read. Asian LNG import volumes in July were the lowest since 2021, with buyers growing more cautious about taking additional cargoes while prices remained elevated, Domain-B reported on August 24 (2026-08-24). JKM's flat print on Wednesday (2026-09-02), against TTF's 3%-plus surge in the same session, indicates Asian buyers are not chasing European price levels.6
The cargo redirection mechanism at the heart of U.S. export strategy has limits. When TTF rises, cargoes originally destined for Asia shift toward European terminals instead. That arbitrage works as long as buyers on both ends remain active. The July data suggest Asian buyers chose restraint over volume when prices became uncomfortable.6,4,5
European buyers face their own medium-term constraints. Expanding renewable power generation and electrification are reducing gas's role in the power sector, Domain-B noted. That demand erosion is gradual, but it means the European premium that currently draws U.S. cargoes westward may not persist at the intensity that makes the equipment investment case straightforward.6
The Hormuz disruption earlier in 2026 illustrated where physical supply-chain risk sits. The World Bank's natural gas price index rose 24% month-on-month in March as the strait closure cut transit for roughly one-fifth of global LNG volumes, according to Hellenic Shipping News reporting on June 8 (2026-06-08). Building liquefaction capacity outside the Gulf corridor addresses a supply vulnerability the market demonstrated is real.7
Mid-scale facilities absorb some of the demand uncertainty. FMI flags growing adoption of smaller plants offering lower capital requirements, faster execution timelines, and flexible production capacity. Those characteristics allow developers to scale commitments to near-term signals rather than locking in years of capital against a fixed offtake assumption.2
If JKM remains subdued and Asian import volumes stay below 2021 levels through the fourth quarter, the utilization economics on both existing and newly commissioned capacity will come under pressure. At that point, the growth projections embedded in FMI's 8.2% CAGR will require revising, and the $55.9 billion market size target for 2035 starts to look like an upper bound.2,6