OPAL Fuels and GFL Environmental Move on Alabama and Georgia Landfill Gas Projects
RIN compliance credits have doubled in 2026, making marginal landfill gas projects economic and drawing new capital into heavy-duty trucking fuel supply.
Compliance credits for biomass-based diesel and ethanol have doubled in value since January, the EIA reported on June 10 (2026-06-10), pushing renewable identification number prices close to record highs on the back of higher U.S. biofuel blending targets. For RNG producers, that repricing changes the investment calculus on projects that would have struggled to pencil out a year ago.8
OPAL Fuels and GFL Environmental are moving on two of those projects now. The White Plains, New York-based producer has agreed with GFL to develop landfill gas capture facilities at the Stones Throw Landfill in Tallapoosa County, Alabama and the Grady Road Landfill in Polk County, Georgia. Together the projects are expected to dispense roughly 14 million gasoline gallon equivalents of RNG and compressed natural gas over the next decade.6
OPAL Fuels is not selling into the commodity market. Its revenue is set by policy-linked credits and physical fuel contracts with heavy-duty trucking customers, which means the projects are more sensitive to RIN price direction than to Henry Hub moves. With blending mandates rising and RIN values near records, the near-term arithmetic supports new commitments.8
The conventional gas market tells a different story. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month futures traded at $2.93 per million British thermal units as of August 31 (2026-08-31), essentially unchanged on the day. That compares with an average around $3.50 per million British thermal units at the close of 2025, when Lower 48 production hit 109 billion cubic feet per day and storage ran 3 to 5 percent above its five-year average. Prices have come off since then.2
Supply is still growing. Marketed natural gas production in the Lower 48 averaged 117.2 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter of 2026, up 4% on the same period a year earlier, according to EIA data. The agency forecasts a further 3% gain for the full year, driven mainly by the Permian, which it expects to produce 29.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, a 6% increase over 2025.1
More supply generally means cheaper feedstock costs for RNG producers, which can improve margins. But it also weighs on the conventional gas prices against which some RNG offtake contracts are partially indexed, and it supports the bear case heading into 2027.1
That bear case centers on LNG. Bulls point to sustained demand growth across Asian markets, industrial users, power generation and AI infrastructure as reasons prices will hold. Bears see a potentially oversupplied LNG market emerging next year. Neither scenario implies a near-term collapse, but the divergence is wide enough that the commodity component of RNG revenue forecasts carries real uncertainty beyond the current contract horizon.4
The sector is not waiting for resolution. Clean Energy Fuels Corp said on Thursday (2026-06-04) it had started production at its eighth RNG facility, the East Valley Cattle project in Jerome, Idaho, described as one of the largest single-site dairy and RNG operations in North America. The pace of project announcements suggests developers are betting the credit regime holds long enough to make new supply economic.5
US natural gas futures held near a one-week low on Wednesday (2026-06-03) as forecasts pointed to softer demand for the week of June 8 (2026-06-08). Analysts said mild spring weather allowed energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual, adding to the bearish supply overhang in the conventional market even as the RIN market moved the other way.3
Pipeline infrastructure adds one more variable. Approximately 70% of new US natural gas pipeline capacity planned for 2026 and 2027, about 31.6 billion cubic feet per day, is already under construction, with more than 66% of additions originating in Texas, the EIA said on June 8 (2026-06-08). That buildout supports Permian production growth but reinforces regional pricing disparities that affect where new supply actually shows up.7
Morgan Stanley has argued Henry Hub prices could surge to $5 per million British thermal units this year, while the EIA's own forecast puts the spot average just under $3.50. If gas prices rally sharply, the economics of diesel and gasoline substitution shift, and the value of RNG as a transport fuel changes with them. If the LNG oversupply bears anticipate arrives instead, it drags down the conventional fuel component of RNG revenues just as the Alabama and Georgia volumes begin flowing.2
RIN prices are the variable that matters most for the OPAL Fuels-GFL projects. If blending targets hold and credit values stay near current levels, the pipeline of landfill gas development will keep moving. A stall in RIN prices would slow it sharply.8,6