EIA Projects Permian Gas at 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, Driven by Crude Oil Extraction
Associated gas from Permian crude drilling is pushing U.S. natural gas output toward a record 122.5 Bcf/d this year, with a further 10% Permian jump forecast for 2027.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the Permian Basin to produce 29.2 billion cubic feet of gas per day in 2026, 6% above 2025 levels, with the growth coming from associated gas lifted alongside crude oil rather than from wells targeting gas directly. That figure is central to the EIA's August 12 (2026-08-12) Short-Term Energy Outlook, which projects total U.S. marketed natural gas production reaching a record 122.5 Bcf/d for the full year, above the previous record of 118.5 Bcf/d set in 2025.3,4,1
The associated gas mechanism keeps Permian volumes rising independent of gas market conditions. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month settled $2.89/MMBtu on Friday (2026-08-28), insufficient on its own to justify most dry-gas drilling programs. Permian producers drill for oil. Gas comes with it, making basin output a function of crude economics and not gas economics.4
That dynamic has been building since 2021. EIA analysis published in June (2026-06-18) showed Permian marketed gas production grew from 17.2 Bcf/d in 2021 to 27.6 Bcf/d in 2025, a 60% rise over four years. Crude oil output in the basin grew 39% over the same period, from 4.7 million barrels per day. Gas has consistently outgrown the oil accompanying it.2
Lower 48 marketed gas production averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2026, up 4% from the first quarter of 2025, according to EIA data published in May (2026-05-21). The agency projects the full-year Lower 48 figure to finish 3% above 2025, weighted toward the second half, with the Permian supplying most of that increase.1
Haynesville offers a separate supply stream. The EIA forecasts output from that dry-gas play spanning Louisiana and east Texas to grow 6% in 2026 and 8% in 2027, adding volumes independent of crude drilling activity. Still, the Permian's associated-gas contribution is larger in absolute terms, and its forecast growth rate for 2027 is steeper.1
Pipeline takeaway capacity has been the main constraint on Permian gas growth. Bottlenecks have periodically forced gas to accumulate at the wellhead or sell at steep West Texas locational discounts to move. The EIA expects those constraints to ease through the back half of 2026, and on that basis projects Permian output growing a further 10% in 2027.1
Texas upstream employment data published on August 25 (2026-08-25) showed the broader upstream workforce in the state fell in July. Yet Support Activities for Oil and Gas Operations posted 2,505 new job listings, the most of any sector tracked among the 19 industries TIPRO uses to define the Texas oil and gas sector. Active listings alongside declining headcount suggest operators optimizing for efficiency rather than adding scale.4
ICE Brent crude front-month was last quoted at $88.29/bbl as of August 29. Permian crude drilling stays economically viable at that price, sustaining the associated gas flows embedded in the EIA's 2026 and 2027 production forecasts. A sustained crude pullback would eventually slow Permian drilling activity and trim associated gas volumes, but that transmission runs over months, not weeks.3
The variable bearing most directly on NYMEX Henry Hub front-month pricing is LNG export absorption. New U.S. liquefaction capacity has been ramping through 2026, but if Permian pipeline constraints lift on the EIA's schedule in late 2026, a fresh tranche of previously bottlenecked gas enters domestic markets at the same time Haynesville continues adding supply. Storage injection rates through September and October and LNG throughput heading into winter are the clearest read on whether that combined volume can clear without driving Henry Hub materially below $3/MMBtu.3,1