Qatar and Kuwait Lift Combined Oil Exports to 70% of Pre-War Levels Through Hormuz
Shuttle tanker services and commercial vessel use have pushed Gulf oil flows sharply higher, with Goldman Sachs saying the volume recovery could cap crude prices.
Qatar and Kuwait have recovered their combined crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz to 70% of pre-conflict rates, traders told Bloomberg on Thursday (2026-08-27), using shuttle services and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman to move barrels through a chokepoint that was largely closed to commercial traffic earlier this year.4,5
The two countries together shipped around 2 million barrels per day before the Iran war. At 70% of that rate, they are now moving roughly 1.4 million bpd. Their return has contributed to a broader surge: total oil flows through Hormuz have risen to 7 to 8 million bpd, up from about 4 million bpd in mid-July (2026-07), according to trading sources. Vortexa placed the seven-day average higher still, reporting on Monday (2026-08-24) that flows through the waterway were close to 10 million bpd.4,5
Goldman Sachs, in analysis released Friday (2026-08-28), broadened the picture. Total crude and petroleum products leaving the entire Middle East have risen to 15 to 16 million bpd, roughly 5 to 6 million bpd above the March (2026-03) trough, the bank's analysts said. Gulf exports overall are running at about two-thirds of pre-war levels, and Goldman said the pace of recovery could cap oil prices even if the conflict persists.6,7
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $88.29 per barrel when markets closed Friday (2026-08-28). NYMEX WTI crude front-month settled at $83.44 per barrel.
Before the conflict, Hormuz carried approximately 18.2 million bpd of crude and refined products in 2025, roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade and about one-fifth of global LNG trade, according to OGJ data. The recovery to between 7 and 10 million bpd through the strait means throughput is running at 40% to 55% of those historical levels.1
Qatar has relied on the commercial tanker fleet for most of its shipments, traders said. Success in clearing cargoes through the strait has allowed Doha to offer barrels on the spot market, a channel that was largely shut to Qatari sellers during the most acute phase of the disruption. Kuwait has added cargoes alongside Qatar's. Goldman's analysts noted that dark crossings by specialized shippers have also contributed to overall volume growth, without identifying the operators.4,6,7
The UAE moved first. Gulf oil exports in June (2026-06) exceeded 10 million bpd as U.S. military operations helped maintain passage through Hormuz, though that level still left the region's exports 40% below pre-war rates, according to data reported by The Hindu on July 3 (2026-07-03). Qatar and Kuwait have since followed the same pattern.2
The trajectory upends the worst-case projections from early in the conflict. Saudi Aramco warned of catastrophic consequences for global oil markets in March (2026-03) when inventories were already at five-year lows and the strait was effectively shut. EIA data put Middle East crude shut-ins at around 10.5 million bpd on average in April, with a projected peak close to 10.8 million bpd in May. The IEA estimated global oil supply had fallen by 12.8 million bpd from pre-war levels.3,1
Asian buyers carry the heaviest exposure to how far the recovery runs. Before the conflict, Asian economies accounted for nearly 80% of Hormuz oil flows, with China importing close to 5 million bpd through the waterway and India, Japan, and South Korea each importing roughly 2 million bpd, according to OGJ data. Any fresh disruption to shuttle routes would hit those buyers hardest.1
Goldman's analysts estimated Hormuz transits alone are likely near the 8 to 10 million bpd figure cited by U.S. officials, and the bank's price-capping thesis depends on volumes holding at current levels. The scale of dark-vessel crossings and the resilience of shuttle operations under continued Iranian pressure are difficult to verify from public data — and both are exposed to any escalation in the conflict.6,7