Goldman Sachs Says Gulf Oil Exports Recover to Two-Thirds of Pre-War Volumes
Dark crossings and ship-to-ship transfers have lifted Middle East crude flows to 15-16 million barrels a day, narrowing but not closing the supply gap.
Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Friday (2026-08-28), with total crude and petroleum products leaving the Middle East running at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, well above the March trough but still 7 million to 8 million barrels short of pre-conflict volumes.5,6
Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said the jump in exports could cap oil prices even as the Middle East conflict continues. ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $88.29 per barrel as of Saturday (2026-08-29). The partial supply restoration gives sellers a concrete number to argue against a geopolitical-shock premium embedded in Brent since the war began.6
Hormuz is where the recovery is most visible. Flows through the strait climbed to around 7 million to 8 million barrels per day, up from about 4 million bpd in mid-July, Bloomberg's trading sources said. Goldman put Hormuz transits even higher — likely close to the US government's estimate of 8 million to 10 million bpd. The strait normally accounts for roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption and one-third of the world's seaborne crude trade, making its partial reopening consequential for global balances even at reduced volumes.5,6,4
The mechanism is not conventional shipping. Goldman's note cited a rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers as the channels driving the volume recovery. Anonymous traders told Bloomberg during the week of August 24 (2026-08-24) that Qatar and Kuwait had boosted their crude exports through the strait to 70% of pre-war levels, following the UAE's model of shuttling oil through the chokepoint.5
The overall deficit remains wide. Regional exports are still 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below pre-conflict volumes, per Goldman. The IEA's most recent Oil Market Report put global production around 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels despite the June recovery, a signal that upstream capacity damage and lingering transit uncertainty have not been resolved. The Goldman data reflects export flows; full production restoration is a different question.6,3
The June rebound was the first meaningful supply recovery after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding opened a negotiating window in mid-June. OPEC+ output rose by roughly 2.45 million bpd that month to 38.39 million bpd. Non-OPEC+ producers added 1.63 million bpd to reach 60.37 million bpd, with the UAE alone accounting for around 940,000 bpd of that increase. Saudi Arabia's exports approached pre-war levels as the kingdom resumed cargo loadings inside the Gulf, Rigzone reported.3,1
Intermittent disruptions persisted even then. Security concerns and reliance on US naval escorts kept flows below what the framework implied, and regional production remained about 11.4 million bpd below pre-war levels by the end of June, the IEA said.3
Iran's volumes add a further layer of complexity. Vortexa's crude cargo tracking showed Iranian movements hit single-day peaks near 7 million bpd through early April before the US blockade cut them off. After the MoU was signed on June 17, Iran's exports rebounded to a single-day peak of around 8 million bpd, Vortexa's data showed. Iranian-origin laden departures rose only 16% post-agreement, because Iran had already been the single largest origin during the blockade period. Much of the apparent rebound reflected traffic that had never fully stopped.2
The IEA projected global oil supply averaging 102.6 million bpd this year if Hormuz transit volumes continue recovering. With the MoU's 60-day window elapsed since mid-June, informal shuttle routes and dark crossings are now what sustains the 15-to-16 million bpd baseline. Sustained pressure on specialized shippers is the scenario that could reverse it when markets reopen Monday (2026-08-31).3,5