Europe's Gas Storage Deficit Deepens as Gulf LNG Stays Offline

European natural gas storage stood at roughly 28% of capacity in early April, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, well behind the levels recorded in each of the three preceding years at the same point in the calendar. The gap has not closed since. The shortfall matters because Europe is simultaneously trying to refill storage after a harder-than-average winter and working around the loss of Gulf LNG. Qatar, which typically supplies 12-14% of EU LNG imports, declared force majeure after the Strait of Hormuz blockage halted commercial shipping. Qatar and UAE loadings combined have eliminated roughly 18 billion cubic metres from the supply picture, the International Energy Agency estimates, only partially replaced by volumes from elsewhere. To reach even the revised 80% storage target by November 1 — down from the original 90% mandate — the EU needs to inject at a rate requiring around 130 LNG cargoes per month. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has written to member states invoking flexibility provisions in the Gas Storage Regulation, urging early injections and framing the lower threshold as a measure designed to give "certainty and reassurance to market participants." Country-level data underlines the scale of the problem. Germany's storage started March at 27% of capacity against a 64% average since 2023. The Netherlands began that month at just 10%, LSEG data shows. Injections have picked up since early April — the Commission's Gas Coordination Group called it "a positive signal" — but levels remain below the five-year average. Price structure is adding friction. TTF has been trading in backwardation, with summer prices above winter prices, a pattern that reduces the commercial incentive to inject when the calendar most demands it. Markets eased after a two-week ceasefire announcement, but volatility has persisted. The Commission has flagged that damage to energy infrastructure in the region will carry "longer-lasting consequences" regardless of how quickly traffic resumes. The EU has regasification capacity of around 1,600 TWh per winter and storage capacity of roughly 1,131 TWh. Transmission system operators have presented scenarios showing 80% is achievable by November 1 if LNG supply holds, pointing to regasification terminals commissioned since 2022 as a buffer. But those scenarios depend heavily on sustained utilisation of facilities in Central and Southeastern Europe throughout the summer months. The critical variable is the strait. Industry analysis suggests that if Hormuz reopens in June, the first Gulf cargoes would reach Europe by late July via alternative routes. If it stays closed through the end of June, that month becomes what one analysis described as "the first breaking point" for both costs and supply adequacy heading into the autumn. Germany's Rehden, Europe's largest underground storage site, is running injection rates roughly 20% behind 2025 levels and will serve as an early indicator of whether Europe can close the deficit in time.