Nepal Rations Cooking Gas While US Exports Hit 14.2M Barrels a Day

Nepal Rations Cooking Gas While US Exports Hit 14.2M Barrels a Day The oil shock is splitting the world into exporters thriving on record volumes and importers where 90% of LPG and 40% of fertiliser transits the closed Hormuz strait. US exports of crude oil and petroleum products reached a record 14.2 million barrels per day last week, 33% above the same week in 2025, Wood Mackenzie reported citing EIA data. At the same time, Nepal is rationing cooking gas. Sri Lanka has urged firms to close on Wednesdays. The energy shock from the Hormuz closure is hitting the world asymmetrically, and the divergence between exporters and importers is widening.^4,5 Import-dependent economies remain exposed to chokepoint risks even in a world of surplus supply, E3G warned in a new study. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil, one-fifth of global consumption. The closure has severed that flow for nearly three months.^1,3 The transmission runs beyond crude oil. Roughly 90% of India's LPG imports transit the strait. Over 40% of India's fertiliser imports come from the Middle East. Around 30% of the global fertiliser trade passes through the same chokepoint. The shock is hitting kitchens and farms, not just refineries.³ Japan and South Korea have increased coal-fired generation as the LNG shock pushes them backward on the energy transition. Major Asian economies are substituting the dirtiest fuel for the one they cannot secure. The Iran war's LNG disruption is creating an environmental reversal measured in millions of tonnes of additional coal burn.⁷ Total US crude and product stocks fell by 24.1 million barrels last week, one of the five largest weekly declines on record. America is exporting at record pace while its own reserves deplete. A Gallup poll found 55% of Americans said their financial situation was worsening, a record in the survey's 25-year history. The exporter is not immune to the crisis it is helping others survive.⁴ Bloomberg Intelligence found that a majority of market participants expect ICE Brent crude to average $81-$100 over the next 12 months. Most expect supply disruptions of 3-7 million barrels per day. EIA projects US output will reach 14.1 million barrels per day by 2027. The supply response is forecast. The question is timing.² Columbia University's Anne-Sophie Corbeau warned that panic could set in if Qatari exports do not resume, with European gas prices potentially soaring beyond EUR 100 per MWh. Gunvor Group's Frederic Lasserre said that if Hormuz stays closed another month, markets face a structural deficit that strategic reserves alone cannot bridge.^8,6 About a quarter of Bloomberg Intelligence survey respondents expect increased hedging activity, compared with 15% seeing more opportunistic risk-taking. The skew toward hedging means the market is locking in current prices rather than speculating on direction. That is a defensive posture, not a confident one.² What to watch is whether the US export rate sustains above 14 million barrels per day while domestic stocks keep falling at 24 million barrels per week. If both trends continue simultaneously, America becomes a throughput economy serving global demand at the expense of its own buffer. The Gallup data says voters have noticed the trade-off.^4,2