Alaska LNG Locks In 30-Year ConocoPhillips Gas Supply as Lower 48 Production Hits 117 Bcf/d

Alaska LNG Locks In 30-Year ConocoPhillips Gas Supply as Lower 48 Production Hits 117 Bcf/d Glenfarne Group secured North Slope feedstock for the 807-mile pipeline project as EIA forecasts US gas output growing 3% this year, led by the Permian. Glenfarne Group announced a 30-year gas supply agreement with ConocoPhillips for the Alaska LNG project, an 807-mile pipeline from the North Slope to a proposed export terminal on the Kenai Peninsula. The deal, reported by Reuters, locks in the feedstock commitment needed to advance the project toward construction financing.⁷ Alaska LNG would create Pacific-facing US export capacity that bypasses both the Strait of Hormuz and the Panama Canal. An analyst told Montel that LNG's supply flexibility is being tested by the Hormuz closure, with no fallback route available when the chokepoint shuts. Asian buyers who have seen their LNG supply disrupted would have a direct route from Alaska to Tokyo, Seoul, and Taipei.^2,7 ConocoPhillips is extending gas commitments elsewhere. The company's partnership with Germany's Uniper covers up to 10 billion cubic metres over the next decade, supplying northwest European markets from ConocoPhillips' diversified production base.⁶ US gas production underpins the expansion. EIA data show Lower 48 marketed natural gas production averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in Q1 2026, a 4% increase year-on-year. The agency forecasts 3% growth this year, driven by the Permian at an expected 29.2 Bcf/d, up 6% from 2025. Haynesville production is forecast to grow 6% this year and 8% next year. Permian output should accelerate to 10% growth next year as pipeline constraints ease.¹ The Russia-China gas dynamic opens a lane. Power of Siberia 2 remains stalled on a Gazprom-CNPC pricing impasse, and the loss of European volumes has weakened Moscow's bargaining position in Asia. If the pipeline stays stuck, Asian buyers need alternatives. Alaska LNG would be the most direct US option.^5,4 Equinor's five-year deal with Eneco for Norwegian shelf gas illustrates how Europe's energy system is being rebuilt around pipeline reliability. Alaska LNG positions ConocoPhillips to serve the Pacific equivalent: a non-Hormuz supply route backed by decades of contracted supply.³ The risk is construction cost. The 807-mile route crosses challenging terrain and the project has been discussed for decades without reaching FID. A 30-year supply deal is necessary but not sufficient. The next signal is whether Glenfarne attracts Asian offtake commitments willing to pay the premium for Hormuz-free LNG.⁷