IEA, Canada: forecast / forward_looking claim — From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Cameco's revenue and adjusted earn...

IEA sees coal share shrinking as nuclear and gas capture data center power surge through 2030 Nuclear's resurgence and natural gas gains are poised to erode coal's generation share even as global electricity demand grows over 3 percent annually. Global electricity demand is set to grow by more than 3 percent per year on average through the end of this decade, but coal's share of the generation mix will shrink as nuclear, renewables and natural gas capture the incremental load, according to the International Energy Agency's Electricity 2026 report released this week. The share of renewables and nuclear in the world's power mix is forecast to reach 50 percent by the end of this decade, with natural gas also expanding its role. The shift comes as data center electricity consumption drives a structural change in power demand. The US Energy Information Administration projects that by 2050, server consumption alone will reach between 446 billion kilowatthours and 818 billion kilowatthours, up from an estimated 7 percent of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025. Data center server electricity use is forecast to grow to 22 to 33 percent of commercial building electricity use by 2050 across the agency's scenarios. Nuclear energy companies stand to benefit from this transition. Analysts expect Cameco's revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to grow at compound annual growth rates of 8 percent and 12 percent respectively from 2025 to 2028. The uranium market is tightening as demand from new reactor construction outpaces supply. Citi analysts expect uranium prices to rise as high as 125 dollars per pound this year as resurgent interest in nuclear energy drives demand beyond available supply. Natural gas is also positioned to capture a larger share of the generation mix. Marketed natural gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 117.2 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter of 2026, a 4 percent increase compared with the same period in 2025. The EIA forecasts Lower 48 marketed natural gas production will increase 3 percent this year compared with 2025, largely because of rising production in the latter part of the year. Industrial consumption averaged a record 23.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, 1 percent more than the record 23.4 billion cubic feet per day reached in 2023. The data center buildout is already generating tangible orders for power infrastructure. Babcock & Wilcox, which makes industrial power generation equipment and is pivoting into AI data center baseload, secured a 2.4 billion dollar design-build contract with Base Electron for 1.2 gigawatts of natural gas-fired power. The contract drove the company's backlog up 470 percent to 2.8 billion dollars. Management guided 2026 core adjusted EBITDA to 70 million to 85 million dollars, roughly 80 percent year-over-year growth, excluding any data center upside. Base Electron is evaluating another 1.2 gigawatt option, and the global pipeline exceeds 12 billion dollars. Shares closed at 14.54 dollars, up 129 percent year to date. Regional power markets are already feeling the pressure. In Texas, solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatthours in 2026 in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas compared with 60 billion kilowatthours for coal, illustrating the displacement effect at the state level. The question for coal is whether the absolute growth in power demand can offset the erosion in market share. With total generation rising at 3 percent annually, coal's slice of a much larger pie could still represent significant volumes even as its percentage share declines. The IEA forecast suggests that nuclear and renewables will absorb most of the incremental demand, leaving coal to compete primarily with natural gas for the remainder. The nuclear revival has reignited after roughly a decade of stagnation following the Fukushima disaster in 2011, which prompted many countries to pause nuclear projects. New decarbonization initiatives, safer reactor designs and the expansion of AI, cloud and data center markets have combined to rehabilitate nuclear power's prospects. The key uncertainty is whether new nuclear and renewable capacity can come online fast enough to meet the surge in data center demand without forcing utilities to extend the life of existing coal plants or delay retirement schedules. The IEA's 50 percent target for renewables and nuclear by 2030 implies an aggressive buildout over the next four years against a backdrop of permitting delays, supply chain constraints and rising construction costs across both technologies.